The title of post speaks for itself. These are teams that I believe, based on my computer projections, will significantly improve from last year.
1. Michigan State
I doubt there's anyone in the country that picked Michigan State to be 3-9 last year. Sparty upset #18 Notre Dame on the road in the second game of the year, and then fell apart. After that 8 point win, they were 0-3 in games decided by one score. QB Brian Lewerke was adequate being getting hurt (31/57, 381 yards). His health and play should improve, giving Sparty a realiable offense. Home games early on versus Iowa and Notre Dame will determine the season. I don't think they start 4-0, but a 3-1 start is feasible. Look for Michigan State to return to bowl with a minimum of 7 wins. Prediction: 7-5
2. UCLA
Josh Rosen may be the most talented QB in the country. He now needs to combine that talent with some maturity and be the leader UCLA needs. Prior to his shoulder injury, he was completing 59.3% of his passes. He needs to improve on those numbers, and returning his top two receivers will help. UCLA should have one of the top running games in the conference, led by RB Soso Jamabo. They open with A&M again, this time at home. If they win that game and establish some momentuem early on, this team could compete for the PAC 12 South. Regardless, I'll go with them to at least double their win today from last year. Prediction: 8-4
3. TCU
The Horned Frogs return 17 starters from a squad that went 6-7 last year. That team was just 1-3 in games decided by a score or less. The non-conference schedule consists of a winnable road game at Arkansas, Jackson St., and an improving SMU team. They must travel to the top 3 teams in the BIG 12: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. However, the should go undefeated at home. Worst case scenario is this team goes 8-4, with 9-3 being extremely possible. If Kenny Hill improves on his 13 INT's, this team can win one more of those tough conference road games. Prediction: 8-4
4. Oregon
Oregon went 4-8 in Mark Helfrich's final year. New coach Willie Taggart inherited 17 starters, but he already kicked one off the team in leading WR Darren Carrington. Still, Oregon is too talent to go 4-8 again. They were 1-3 in games decided by a score or less last year, and an experienced team should improve that. Their toughest opponents are on the road, meaning they should win most or all of their home games. A 3-0 start is likely, with a 4-0 start plausible. I don't think they can win the PAC 12 North simply because they travel to Washington and Stanford. But, they should at least double their win total from last year. Prediction: 8-4
5. NC State
The Wolfpack went 7-6 last year but 3-5 in ACC play. Normally, if a team goes over .500 I don't put them on this list. But, the Wolfpack are Top 25 worthy. That have the potential to battle for the ACC Atlantic crown. Why? To start with, they return 17 starters, led by QB Ryan Finley. Finley threw for over 3,000 last year, and you can only expect those numbers to improve. State is in one of the one of the toughest divisions in all of football. They will face Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson. Seemingly every year, the ACC has a team come out of nowhere. I believe the Pack could be that team this year. They should be at least 5-3 in conference play. If they beat one of three previously mentioned, they'll be 6-2 and in the running for a Top ACC bowl bid. Other teams may make more progress record-wise. But few teams will make more progress in terms of ability on the field. Prediction: 9-3
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Level 5 Teams
These teams should go 11-1 or 12-0 and win their conference. They should finish the regular season in the Top 5 and be in contention for a Playoff spot. Anything less that should be considered a disappointment. Remember...this does NOT do into account the schedule or coaching.
1. Alabama
Bama has the best backfield in the nation. If Jalen Hurts develops as a passer, they should have at least nine double digit victories. The defense, while young, is full of talent. In an unusual twist for Bama, the best part of this defense will be the secondary led by Minka Fitzpatrick.
2. Ohio State
If there is a team that has equal talent to Bama, it's Ohio State. The Buckeyes are led by QB JT Barrett. The defense is so talented that Nick Bosa isn't even considered a starter. The only weakness for this team is special teams, but Urban Meyer is known as a special teams guru.
3. Florida State
The Noles are loaded. DB Derwin James is back healthy, giving the Noles the best defense in the ACC. Deondre Francois' development will be key, but has Heisman finalist talent. Even with some loses, they will once again has some of the best skill players in the league as well. The schedule is a doozy, but on paper is on the most talented teams in the country. They have few weaknesses, and thanks to great recruiting, they have depth.
4. Oklahoma
The Sooners have the best 1-2 punch at QB with returning starter Baker Mayfield and transfer Kyler Murray. The Sooners are in the top 3 at every position in the Big 12, and there isn't a school close to them in overall talent.
5. USC
I debated on whether to put USC as a Level 5 team or at the top of the list for Level 4 teams. When I compare them, though, to everyone else in the PAC 12, there isn't a comparison. They have the top QB in Sam Darnold, and they have team speed everywhere. Baring injuries, they should be favored in every game.
1. Alabama
Bama has the best backfield in the nation. If Jalen Hurts develops as a passer, they should have at least nine double digit victories. The defense, while young, is full of talent. In an unusual twist for Bama, the best part of this defense will be the secondary led by Minka Fitzpatrick.
2. Ohio State
If there is a team that has equal talent to Bama, it's Ohio State. The Buckeyes are led by QB JT Barrett. The defense is so talented that Nick Bosa isn't even considered a starter. The only weakness for this team is special teams, but Urban Meyer is known as a special teams guru.
3. Florida State
The Noles are loaded. DB Derwin James is back healthy, giving the Noles the best defense in the ACC. Deondre Francois' development will be key, but has Heisman finalist talent. Even with some loses, they will once again has some of the best skill players in the league as well. The schedule is a doozy, but on paper is on the most talented teams in the country. They have few weaknesses, and thanks to great recruiting, they have depth.
4. Oklahoma
The Sooners have the best 1-2 punch at QB with returning starter Baker Mayfield and transfer Kyler Murray. The Sooners are in the top 3 at every position in the Big 12, and there isn't a school close to them in overall talent.
5. USC
I debated on whether to put USC as a Level 5 team or at the top of the list for Level 4 teams. When I compare them, though, to everyone else in the PAC 12, there isn't a comparison. They have the top QB in Sam Darnold, and they have team speed everywhere. Baring injuries, they should be favored in every game.
The Level System
For the past 10 years, I have been touting what I call the Level System. This system looks at talent ALONE, ignoring things like coaching, injuries, home vs. away schedule, bad calls, etc. I believe, and history proves this, that coaching is only good for a 1 level increase/decrease. In rare circumstances, you see a 2 level increase. Over the next days, I will be posting my Level 5 and Level 4 teams. To better understand this, I have this broken down both in college football and college basketball terms.
Level 5
These are championship level teams. In college football, these teams should finish the regular season 11-1 or 12-0 and be legitimate playoff contenders. In college basketball, these are Final Four teams. UNC basketball is a perfect example of this from last year. They SHOULD have been in the Final Four simply based on their talent, and they lived up to it.
Level 4
These teams should have great years. In college football, they should go 9-3 or 10-2 and compete for their conference championship. They also receive New Year's Day/Dec. 31 bowl bids. In college basketball, they are Sweet 16/Elite 8 teams. They are certainly capable of taking the next step and reaching a championship, but it requires both good coaching and breaks. UCLA basketball is a good example. They were a very talented team this past year, but they were not the 4-5 most talented team. The had an unlucky draw in the tourney versus Kentucky and lost to the better team. The Washington football team from last year was a Level 4 team. Yet, with great coaching, they jumped to a Level 5 team.
Level 3
These teams should have slightly above average years. In college football, they should go 7-5 or 8-4. Non-Power 5 teams should be 9-3 or 10-2. In college basketball, these teams should make the tournament and possibly win a game. If they get good coaching, they could make a run in the tournament. Wake Forest is a good example. They had decent talent to make the tournament. They finished 19-14 and made the NCAA Tournament. However, they lost in the First Four to Kansas State. Georgia Tech was a Level 3 football team last year. Yet, by beating Georgia at the end of the year and Kentucky in the Taxslayer Bowl, they finished with 9 wins, making them a Level 4 team. Virginia Tech is another example from the same conference.
Level 2
These teams have slightly below-average years. In college football, they should go anywhere from 4-8 to 6-6. Non-Power 5 teams should go anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4 depending on their schedule. In college basketball, these are NIT or NIT-bubble teams. Georgia Tech is a good example of a Level 2 basketball teams from this past year. Few would argue that they had the talent to be an NCAA team. TCU was a Level 3 football team that performed down to a Level 2 level. They finished the regular season at 6-6. Some could argue (not me) that this was possibly even a Level 4 caliber team.
Level 1
As you can probably guess, these teams are the bottom of the barrel. Baring upsets, great coaching, or breaks, they should finish last or next to last in their conference. These college football teams should have anywhere from 0 to 3 overall wins. In college basketball basketball, these teams finish below .500. Virginia was a Level 1 football team from last year. Few expected them to compete in the ACC last season.
Level 5
These are championship level teams. In college football, these teams should finish the regular season 11-1 or 12-0 and be legitimate playoff contenders. In college basketball, these are Final Four teams. UNC basketball is a perfect example of this from last year. They SHOULD have been in the Final Four simply based on their talent, and they lived up to it.
Level 4
These teams should have great years. In college football, they should go 9-3 or 10-2 and compete for their conference championship. They also receive New Year's Day/Dec. 31 bowl bids. In college basketball, they are Sweet 16/Elite 8 teams. They are certainly capable of taking the next step and reaching a championship, but it requires both good coaching and breaks. UCLA basketball is a good example. They were a very talented team this past year, but they were not the 4-5 most talented team. The had an unlucky draw in the tourney versus Kentucky and lost to the better team. The Washington football team from last year was a Level 4 team. Yet, with great coaching, they jumped to a Level 5 team.
Level 3
These teams should have slightly above average years. In college football, they should go 7-5 or 8-4. Non-Power 5 teams should be 9-3 or 10-2. In college basketball, these teams should make the tournament and possibly win a game. If they get good coaching, they could make a run in the tournament. Wake Forest is a good example. They had decent talent to make the tournament. They finished 19-14 and made the NCAA Tournament. However, they lost in the First Four to Kansas State. Georgia Tech was a Level 3 football team last year. Yet, by beating Georgia at the end of the year and Kentucky in the Taxslayer Bowl, they finished with 9 wins, making them a Level 4 team. Virginia Tech is another example from the same conference.
Level 2
These teams have slightly below-average years. In college football, they should go anywhere from 4-8 to 6-6. Non-Power 5 teams should go anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4 depending on their schedule. In college basketball, these are NIT or NIT-bubble teams. Georgia Tech is a good example of a Level 2 basketball teams from this past year. Few would argue that they had the talent to be an NCAA team. TCU was a Level 3 football team that performed down to a Level 2 level. They finished the regular season at 6-6. Some could argue (not me) that this was possibly even a Level 4 caliber team.
Level 1
As you can probably guess, these teams are the bottom of the barrel. Baring upsets, great coaching, or breaks, they should finish last or next to last in their conference. These college football teams should have anywhere from 0 to 3 overall wins. In college basketball basketball, these teams finish below .500. Virginia was a Level 1 football team from last year. Few expected them to compete in the ACC last season.
Monday, July 24, 2017
SEC Predictions
West
1. Alabama
The computer loves Bama, giving them the lowest ranking in the conference by over 30 points. Bama, though, has a brutal schedule, beginning with FSU. The Iron Bowl could decide the West and the College Football Playoff picture.
2. Auburn
The numbers are tight here with LSU and Auburn. Advantage to Auburn because of their cross over schedule. Auburn's trip Sept. 9 to Clemson will be telling for both teams. If they were to win, they could then afford a lose prior to Bama and still win the West.
3. LSU
Along with their games in the West, LSU must travel to Florida and Tennessee. Although they have more talent than both teams, hard to see them winning both. The computers love LSU but for two categories: crossover schedule and QB. If Danny Etling produces, they can overcome the schedule.
4. Arkansas
I love senior QB's. Arkansas could surprise some people, and I would not be surprised if they upset 1 of the top 3 in the West. Too much talent above them, though, to make a real push for West crown.
5. Mississippi State
Dan Mullen is a QB whisperer, and he has a gym in Nick Fitzgerald. Conference schedule is brutal. Winnable games are on the road (UGA, Auburn, A&M, and Arkansas), with Bama and LSU at home. Tough to overcome the schedule.
6. Texas A&M
The computer has A&M fifth. But, like Ole Miss, hard to overcome dysfunction. If A&M loses at UCLA (and I think they will), I could see this team going 5-7. If they win, the schedule sets up nicely for a battle for the West crown.
7. Ole Miss
No bowl. No coach. As a former coach, I've seen firsthand how tough it is to rally and motivate a team that has nothing to play for. Ole Miss has talent, and a brutal three game road stretch early on will test them (Cal, Bama, Auburn). If they somehow go 1-2, they could salvage the season. If they go 0-3 (which I believe they will), you could be looking at a 4-8 team.
East
1. Georgia
I nearly went with Florida here, even though the computer gives the Dawgs a slight edge. Georgia has talent. It is just young talent. I lot with depend on the success of the young offensive line. Georgia could easily start 2-0 or 0-2. They better come to play versus App State
2. Florida
Many people (including this writer) believe Malik Zaire will be the Gators QB. He is a great leader, but will need to make some plays with his arm to overcome a brutal schedule. The Gators will have as much or more talent than everyone they play except for FSU. If they can stay healthy, this is a sleeper for the Playoffs.
3. Tennessee
Speaking of QB, who will UT's be? Tennessee had high expectations last year and failed to live up them. This year, most people have then right here at third. The schedule is the toughest in the conference, with crossover games at Bama and at home to LSU, not to mention an East trip to Gainesville.
4. Kentucky
Few teams were playing better football at the end of the year than Kentucky. That is a sign of good coaching. Now, Kentucky must learn to win the close ones. The Cats open again at Southern Miss, a game they will certainly be ready for. The trip to South Carolina Sept. 16 will tell who in the East is ready to take the next step.
5. South Carolina
South Carolina's best shot is third in the East. There is some talent now, but little depth. Muschamp is recruiting well but needs another class. The Sept. 9 trip to Missouri will be telling. If they can win that, they should battle the Vols and Cats for third.
6. Missouri
Missouri lost five SEC games by double figures. Their closest road game was 10 points at South Carolina. Despite that, Barry Odom is now in his second season, and he has a solid QB in Drew Lock. Their first four games are at home. If they can go 3-1, they could be a tough out in the SEC East.
7. Vanderbilt
Vandy came out of nowhere to go 3-5 in the SEC last year. Credit Derek Mason and his staff for maximizing their potential. This year, they won't be able to sneak up on anyone. The 'Dores upset UGA, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, and all three should be more talented than the 'Dores this year. While I don't expect a return to 2014 (3-9), I don't see 6 wins on their schedule this year.
1. Alabama
The computer loves Bama, giving them the lowest ranking in the conference by over 30 points. Bama, though, has a brutal schedule, beginning with FSU. The Iron Bowl could decide the West and the College Football Playoff picture.
2. Auburn
The numbers are tight here with LSU and Auburn. Advantage to Auburn because of their cross over schedule. Auburn's trip Sept. 9 to Clemson will be telling for both teams. If they were to win, they could then afford a lose prior to Bama and still win the West.
3. LSU
Along with their games in the West, LSU must travel to Florida and Tennessee. Although they have more talent than both teams, hard to see them winning both. The computers love LSU but for two categories: crossover schedule and QB. If Danny Etling produces, they can overcome the schedule.
4. Arkansas
I love senior QB's. Arkansas could surprise some people, and I would not be surprised if they upset 1 of the top 3 in the West. Too much talent above them, though, to make a real push for West crown.
5. Mississippi State
Dan Mullen is a QB whisperer, and he has a gym in Nick Fitzgerald. Conference schedule is brutal. Winnable games are on the road (UGA, Auburn, A&M, and Arkansas), with Bama and LSU at home. Tough to overcome the schedule.
6. Texas A&M
The computer has A&M fifth. But, like Ole Miss, hard to overcome dysfunction. If A&M loses at UCLA (and I think they will), I could see this team going 5-7. If they win, the schedule sets up nicely for a battle for the West crown.
7. Ole Miss
No bowl. No coach. As a former coach, I've seen firsthand how tough it is to rally and motivate a team that has nothing to play for. Ole Miss has talent, and a brutal three game road stretch early on will test them (Cal, Bama, Auburn). If they somehow go 1-2, they could salvage the season. If they go 0-3 (which I believe they will), you could be looking at a 4-8 team.
East
1. Georgia
I nearly went with Florida here, even though the computer gives the Dawgs a slight edge. Georgia has talent. It is just young talent. I lot with depend on the success of the young offensive line. Georgia could easily start 2-0 or 0-2. They better come to play versus App State
2. Florida
Many people (including this writer) believe Malik Zaire will be the Gators QB. He is a great leader, but will need to make some plays with his arm to overcome a brutal schedule. The Gators will have as much or more talent than everyone they play except for FSU. If they can stay healthy, this is a sleeper for the Playoffs.
3. Tennessee
Speaking of QB, who will UT's be? Tennessee had high expectations last year and failed to live up them. This year, most people have then right here at third. The schedule is the toughest in the conference, with crossover games at Bama and at home to LSU, not to mention an East trip to Gainesville.
4. Kentucky
Few teams were playing better football at the end of the year than Kentucky. That is a sign of good coaching. Now, Kentucky must learn to win the close ones. The Cats open again at Southern Miss, a game they will certainly be ready for. The trip to South Carolina Sept. 16 will tell who in the East is ready to take the next step.
5. South Carolina
South Carolina's best shot is third in the East. There is some talent now, but little depth. Muschamp is recruiting well but needs another class. The Sept. 9 trip to Missouri will be telling. If they can win that, they should battle the Vols and Cats for third.
6. Missouri
Missouri lost five SEC games by double figures. Their closest road game was 10 points at South Carolina. Despite that, Barry Odom is now in his second season, and he has a solid QB in Drew Lock. Their first four games are at home. If they can go 3-1, they could be a tough out in the SEC East.
7. Vanderbilt
Vandy came out of nowhere to go 3-5 in the SEC last year. Credit Derek Mason and his staff for maximizing their potential. This year, they won't be able to sneak up on anyone. The 'Dores upset UGA, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, and all three should be more talented than the 'Dores this year. While I don't expect a return to 2014 (3-9), I don't see 6 wins on their schedule this year.
2017 Top 25
These predictions are based on where I believe teams will FINISH
1. Alabama
When you return 11 starters after making the Playoffs, you might think drop off. But, as the saying goes, but doesn't rebuild they reload. Jalen Hurts will continue to improve decision making, and he'll have the top backfield in the country to help take some weight off. I believe Bama will suffer a regular season loss, but they will the SEC behind the best QB in the league. A championship battle versus Ohio State is one we can dream of.
2. Ohio State
It's scary how good each unit is for the Buckeyes, led by potential Heisman finalist JT Barrett. 15 starters return from a team that embarrassed in the Fiesta Bowl. Urban Meyer does well with hungry teams (see 2014). The Buckeyes face two of there toughest three games at home. Even if they slip up once, they should still win the Big Ten.
3. USC
While I have them going 11-1 in the regular season, I would not be surprised if the Trojans were undefeated come playoff time. Sam Darnold is the trendy pick now for the Heisman. They must replace three offensive line starters, and that would concern me if I were a Trojan. They also have no bye weeks, meaning no time to rest up.
4. Florida State
In terms of talent, this may be the most talented team in the country. There really isn't a weak unit, and they have depth. The defense returns 9 starters and should be the best in the ACC. Deondre Francois must be more consistent at QB. The schedule is tough, as they will face 4 of their toughest 6 games away from Doak Campbell. I trust a good defense in those games, which is why they are still ranked 4.
5. Oklahoma
Bob Stoops left behind a talented team, led by QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is one of nine returning offensive starters, giving the Sooners one of the best offensives in the country. OU always seems to stumble to someone they should beat (see Houston last year, Texas in '15, Ok State in '14). Even if they lose Nov. 4 to the Pokes, they should be able to get revenge in the first ever Big 12 Championship game.
6. Oklahoma State
I love this squad. Mason Rudolph is my dark horse Heisman pick. They have some of the best (maybe THE best) wide receivers in the country, led by James Washington. They have a tough three stretch at Texas, at West Virginia, and at home to Oklahoma. Win two of three and they should make the title game.
7. Auburn
I was so close to picking the Tigers to win the SEC. I have causes for concern though. 1) Gus Malzahn is best when he has a mobile QB. Jarrett Stidham will be good, just not that mobile. 2) Their schedule is brutal: at LSU, at Arkansas, at A&M, and at home versus Georgia and Bama. I don't think anyone makes it out of the West undefeated. Auburn can afford a lose (most likely at LSU) as long as they beat Bama.
8. Michigan
Like Auburn, I nearly picked Michigan to win the Big Ten. Again like Auburn, their schedule turned me away. The Wolverines must travel to Penn State and Wisconsin. They will have a good defense to compete in those games, but they only return one starter from last year. It is good but young. They host Ohio State in a game that could decide the division.
9. Washington
Washington was a trendy pick last year. They steamrolled the PAC 12. Jake Browning should be even better, and he'll have playmakers on the outside led by Dante Pettis. One of my highest computer indicators for success is the schedule. Washington avoid USC in the South, and gets UCLA at home. The North is weaker top to bottom than the South, but they must travel to their biggest competition (Stanford).
10. South Florida
Consider me a Charlie Strong fan. I firmly believe new coaches should be given a minimum of 4 years to see what they can do. Now at USF, Strong inherits a very talented squad, led by Quinton Flowers. The Bulls also return 9 defensive starters. That, a defensive-minded head coach, and an experienced QB should mean double digit wins. Their three toughest games (Tulsa, Houston, and Temple) are all at home. An undefeated season, and perhaps the division, could come down to the Nov. 24 trip to Orlando versus UCF.
11. LSU
I love good defenses, and the Tigers will have one of the best ones in the country. They are loaded at every level. The key for them, like always, will be their QB play. Danny Etling will be in a QB friendly system. I don't expect All-Conference numbers, but he should have more than his 2,123 yards from last year. The schedule is rough: road trips to Bama, Florida, and dangerous teams in Mississippi State and Tennessee.
12. Miami
Did I mention I like defenses? Miami should end the year with a Top Ten defense, led by LB Shaq Quarterman. They key, like LSU, will be QB play. Their schedule sets up nicley for them. Of their five toughest games, only FSU is on road. Miami should win the Coastal, setting a fun rematch with the Noles.
13. Penn State
Yes, you can tell I'm not as high on the Nittany Lions as most people. I like James Franklin, and I think he has a good team. Teams like PSU scare me though. Since 2012, the only team with more than 8 wins was last year. Yes, I'm aware of the scholarship limitations. But, I think Penn State peaked a little too early.
14. Clemson
Clemson is loaded just about everywhere except the position that matters...QB. It's nearly impossible to be a 10 win team without really good QB play. Clemson's best in school history just left for the Houston Texans, and now someone must step up. Chances are, this will be temporary as All-World QB Trevor Lawerence will be in school next fall. Until then, the Tigers will be inconsinstent.
15. Stanford
Hard to believe that Stanford was actually 10-3 last year. QB Keller Chryst should be much improved, and Stanford always has a solid O line. Their 6 game stretch beginning at USC Sept. 9 is brutal. Survive that by going 5-1 and the Cardinal could win the PAC 12 North.
16. Wisconsin
The Badgers don't scare you like Ohio State. They don't have the athletes like Michigan. They don't have the Heisman candidate like Penn State. But they are steady. They have lost 3 games each of the past 3 seasons, and they could be even better this year. They should have the best defense in the conference, and playing in Madison in the cold is no fun for opponents. They avoid Ohio State but do face Michigan at home.
17. Georgia
Expectations are high in Athens. Most feel this team should win the East, or come just shy and win it next year. Much will depend on Jacob Eason. He got no help from one of the worst offensive lines in school history. But, thanks to the best offensive line recruiting class in the country, the line should at least be adequate. The Dawgs return 10 starters on defense, a unit that could be Top 10 by year's end. We'll know early if the Dawgs are for real. Their first opponents, App State and Notre Dame, should both be ranked at some point this season. As for SEC play, the Dawgs must travel to Tennessee and Auburn. They can afford a slip-up in SEC play as long as they beat Florida Oct. 28.
18. Kansas State
Bill Snyder is one of my favorite coaches. The man defines integrity, and he runs his program the right way. Few know how hard it is to recruit kids to Manhattan, Kansas, and he's done a great job in second run. This should be one of his best teams, and I believe one that will compete for the Big 12 Title. They get Oklahoma State and TCU at home. Win those two and they should be one of two teams in the title game.
19. Louisville
Lamar Jackson comes off a Heisman season looking add some team accomplishments to the award. This team was a lot better than their 9-4 record last year. They return 11 starters, with only 4 of those starters being on offense. The schedule includes trips to UNC, NC State, and FSU. The Cardinals should compete with Clemson for second in the ACC Atlantic.
20. Florida
Florida is a hard one to figure out. There is talent, although they have lacked the elite recruiting classes lately. They have playmakers, led by WR Antonio Callaway. Some experts have them picked over Georgia in the East. Most have them second. My computer has them just below UGA, so I'm going to trust the computer. The Gators have sneaky back-to-back road games right after Georgia versus Missouri and South Carolina. This will be a good club, just not SEC East champs.
21. Notre Dame
The Irish return 15 starters, one of the largest in the nation. Unfortunately for them, QB Deshone Kizer is not one of them. They will get an early test as they face a tough Temple team and an improved Georgia team. The schedule is tough. They must travel to Miami and Stanford, and they get USC at home. ND could be anywhere from 5-7 to 10-2.
22. UCLA
Chalk the Bruins up as the most disappointing team in the country last year (ND a close second). If Josh Rosen stays healthy, the Bruins will certainly improve on their 4 win total. They return 9 offensive starters and should have one of the top offenses in the PAC 12. The schedule is why they sit at 22. They face Stanford, Washington, Utah, and USC all on the road, and get home games versus Colorado and Oregon. It doesn't get much tougher than that.
23. San Diego State
The more I read about the Aztecs, the more I like them! QB Christian Chapman completed 61% of his passes last year, and he returns. They should have the best defense in the Mountain West. The non-conference games versus Stanford and at Arizona State should be a good gauge of where they are at. In conference, they won't see Colorado State until the championship game.
24. Colorado State
It has taken Mike Bobo three years, but he should have a team that will reach double digit wins. Nick Stevens gives the Rams at solid arm at QB, and WR Michael Gallup is a weapon on the outside. They have the best skill players in the league and should put up points. They get Boise St. at home but must travel to Wyoming, a team lost to 38-17 last year.
25. NC State
Why NC State? To start with, they return 17 starters on a team that went 7-6. Ryan Finley completed 60.4% of his passes, and his top four receivers return. Eight of their top 11 tacklers return, led by Jerod Fernandez. The schedule sets up nice too. If they can beat South Carolina in Charlotte on Sept. 2, they should be 3-0 Sept. 23 when they travel to FSU. Later on, they get Louisville and Clemson at home. The fans in Raleigh turn out when the Wolfpack are good, and they could have a good one this year.
1. Alabama
When you return 11 starters after making the Playoffs, you might think drop off. But, as the saying goes, but doesn't rebuild they reload. Jalen Hurts will continue to improve decision making, and he'll have the top backfield in the country to help take some weight off. I believe Bama will suffer a regular season loss, but they will the SEC behind the best QB in the league. A championship battle versus Ohio State is one we can dream of.
2. Ohio State
It's scary how good each unit is for the Buckeyes, led by potential Heisman finalist JT Barrett. 15 starters return from a team that embarrassed in the Fiesta Bowl. Urban Meyer does well with hungry teams (see 2014). The Buckeyes face two of there toughest three games at home. Even if they slip up once, they should still win the Big Ten.
3. USC
While I have them going 11-1 in the regular season, I would not be surprised if the Trojans were undefeated come playoff time. Sam Darnold is the trendy pick now for the Heisman. They must replace three offensive line starters, and that would concern me if I were a Trojan. They also have no bye weeks, meaning no time to rest up.
4. Florida State
In terms of talent, this may be the most talented team in the country. There really isn't a weak unit, and they have depth. The defense returns 9 starters and should be the best in the ACC. Deondre Francois must be more consistent at QB. The schedule is tough, as they will face 4 of their toughest 6 games away from Doak Campbell. I trust a good defense in those games, which is why they are still ranked 4.
5. Oklahoma
Bob Stoops left behind a talented team, led by QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is one of nine returning offensive starters, giving the Sooners one of the best offensives in the country. OU always seems to stumble to someone they should beat (see Houston last year, Texas in '15, Ok State in '14). Even if they lose Nov. 4 to the Pokes, they should be able to get revenge in the first ever Big 12 Championship game.
6. Oklahoma State
I love this squad. Mason Rudolph is my dark horse Heisman pick. They have some of the best (maybe THE best) wide receivers in the country, led by James Washington. They have a tough three stretch at Texas, at West Virginia, and at home to Oklahoma. Win two of three and they should make the title game.
7. Auburn
I was so close to picking the Tigers to win the SEC. I have causes for concern though. 1) Gus Malzahn is best when he has a mobile QB. Jarrett Stidham will be good, just not that mobile. 2) Their schedule is brutal: at LSU, at Arkansas, at A&M, and at home versus Georgia and Bama. I don't think anyone makes it out of the West undefeated. Auburn can afford a lose (most likely at LSU) as long as they beat Bama.
8. Michigan
Like Auburn, I nearly picked Michigan to win the Big Ten. Again like Auburn, their schedule turned me away. The Wolverines must travel to Penn State and Wisconsin. They will have a good defense to compete in those games, but they only return one starter from last year. It is good but young. They host Ohio State in a game that could decide the division.
9. Washington
Washington was a trendy pick last year. They steamrolled the PAC 12. Jake Browning should be even better, and he'll have playmakers on the outside led by Dante Pettis. One of my highest computer indicators for success is the schedule. Washington avoid USC in the South, and gets UCLA at home. The North is weaker top to bottom than the South, but they must travel to their biggest competition (Stanford).
10. South Florida
Consider me a Charlie Strong fan. I firmly believe new coaches should be given a minimum of 4 years to see what they can do. Now at USF, Strong inherits a very talented squad, led by Quinton Flowers. The Bulls also return 9 defensive starters. That, a defensive-minded head coach, and an experienced QB should mean double digit wins. Their three toughest games (Tulsa, Houston, and Temple) are all at home. An undefeated season, and perhaps the division, could come down to the Nov. 24 trip to Orlando versus UCF.
11. LSU
I love good defenses, and the Tigers will have one of the best ones in the country. They are loaded at every level. The key for them, like always, will be their QB play. Danny Etling will be in a QB friendly system. I don't expect All-Conference numbers, but he should have more than his 2,123 yards from last year. The schedule is rough: road trips to Bama, Florida, and dangerous teams in Mississippi State and Tennessee.
12. Miami
Did I mention I like defenses? Miami should end the year with a Top Ten defense, led by LB Shaq Quarterman. They key, like LSU, will be QB play. Their schedule sets up nicley for them. Of their five toughest games, only FSU is on road. Miami should win the Coastal, setting a fun rematch with the Noles.
13. Penn State
Yes, you can tell I'm not as high on the Nittany Lions as most people. I like James Franklin, and I think he has a good team. Teams like PSU scare me though. Since 2012, the only team with more than 8 wins was last year. Yes, I'm aware of the scholarship limitations. But, I think Penn State peaked a little too early.
14. Clemson
Clemson is loaded just about everywhere except the position that matters...QB. It's nearly impossible to be a 10 win team without really good QB play. Clemson's best in school history just left for the Houston Texans, and now someone must step up. Chances are, this will be temporary as All-World QB Trevor Lawerence will be in school next fall. Until then, the Tigers will be inconsinstent.
15. Stanford
Hard to believe that Stanford was actually 10-3 last year. QB Keller Chryst should be much improved, and Stanford always has a solid O line. Their 6 game stretch beginning at USC Sept. 9 is brutal. Survive that by going 5-1 and the Cardinal could win the PAC 12 North.
16. Wisconsin
The Badgers don't scare you like Ohio State. They don't have the athletes like Michigan. They don't have the Heisman candidate like Penn State. But they are steady. They have lost 3 games each of the past 3 seasons, and they could be even better this year. They should have the best defense in the conference, and playing in Madison in the cold is no fun for opponents. They avoid Ohio State but do face Michigan at home.
17. Georgia
Expectations are high in Athens. Most feel this team should win the East, or come just shy and win it next year. Much will depend on Jacob Eason. He got no help from one of the worst offensive lines in school history. But, thanks to the best offensive line recruiting class in the country, the line should at least be adequate. The Dawgs return 10 starters on defense, a unit that could be Top 10 by year's end. We'll know early if the Dawgs are for real. Their first opponents, App State and Notre Dame, should both be ranked at some point this season. As for SEC play, the Dawgs must travel to Tennessee and Auburn. They can afford a slip-up in SEC play as long as they beat Florida Oct. 28.
18. Kansas State
Bill Snyder is one of my favorite coaches. The man defines integrity, and he runs his program the right way. Few know how hard it is to recruit kids to Manhattan, Kansas, and he's done a great job in second run. This should be one of his best teams, and I believe one that will compete for the Big 12 Title. They get Oklahoma State and TCU at home. Win those two and they should be one of two teams in the title game.
19. Louisville
Lamar Jackson comes off a Heisman season looking add some team accomplishments to the award. This team was a lot better than their 9-4 record last year. They return 11 starters, with only 4 of those starters being on offense. The schedule includes trips to UNC, NC State, and FSU. The Cardinals should compete with Clemson for second in the ACC Atlantic.
20. Florida
Florida is a hard one to figure out. There is talent, although they have lacked the elite recruiting classes lately. They have playmakers, led by WR Antonio Callaway. Some experts have them picked over Georgia in the East. Most have them second. My computer has them just below UGA, so I'm going to trust the computer. The Gators have sneaky back-to-back road games right after Georgia versus Missouri and South Carolina. This will be a good club, just not SEC East champs.
21. Notre Dame
The Irish return 15 starters, one of the largest in the nation. Unfortunately for them, QB Deshone Kizer is not one of them. They will get an early test as they face a tough Temple team and an improved Georgia team. The schedule is tough. They must travel to Miami and Stanford, and they get USC at home. ND could be anywhere from 5-7 to 10-2.
22. UCLA
Chalk the Bruins up as the most disappointing team in the country last year (ND a close second). If Josh Rosen stays healthy, the Bruins will certainly improve on their 4 win total. They return 9 offensive starters and should have one of the top offenses in the PAC 12. The schedule is why they sit at 22. They face Stanford, Washington, Utah, and USC all on the road, and get home games versus Colorado and Oregon. It doesn't get much tougher than that.
23. San Diego State
The more I read about the Aztecs, the more I like them! QB Christian Chapman completed 61% of his passes last year, and he returns. They should have the best defense in the Mountain West. The non-conference games versus Stanford and at Arizona State should be a good gauge of where they are at. In conference, they won't see Colorado State until the championship game.
24. Colorado State
It has taken Mike Bobo three years, but he should have a team that will reach double digit wins. Nick Stevens gives the Rams at solid arm at QB, and WR Michael Gallup is a weapon on the outside. They have the best skill players in the league and should put up points. They get Boise St. at home but must travel to Wyoming, a team lost to 38-17 last year.
25. NC State
Why NC State? To start with, they return 17 starters on a team that went 7-6. Ryan Finley completed 60.4% of his passes, and his top four receivers return. Eight of their top 11 tacklers return, led by Jerod Fernandez. The schedule sets up nice too. If they can beat South Carolina in Charlotte on Sept. 2, they should be 3-0 Sept. 23 when they travel to FSU. Later on, they get Louisville and Clemson at home. The fans in Raleigh turn out when the Wolfpack are good, and they could have a good one this year.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
The Way Too Early Preseason Top 25
These predictions are based on how I think these teams will FINISH the season. I considered their schedule, returning rosters, talent, and the intangibles.
1. Florida State (12-0, 8-0) - Back is Jameis Winston. Gone are many of his weapons, including WR Kelvin Benjamin. Don't underestimate the lose of DC Jeremy Pruitt to Georgia. The schedule is a little tougher, as they must face Oklahoma State in Arlington in Week 1. But, the Cowboys will be down, as they only return 9 total starters. Notre Dame comes to town Oct. 18, and Florida will be a lot better this year. The Noles really weren't tested last year outside of the National Title game. Expect the Noles to face some challenges this year.
2. Oregon (11-1, 7-1) - I love Marcus Mariota. I think he is a future All-Pro QB. Had he not gotten hurt, there is a legit chance that the Ducks would have played for the National Title last year. Give the Ducks credit for scheduling Michigan State Sept. 6. The Spartans mirror Stanford, a team that has given the Ducks fits over the years. Their PAC-12 schedule has a few tough games, but only one of them is on the road in UCLA.
3. Alabama (11-1, 7-1) - Bama is once again loaded. If transfer QB Jacob Coker is as good as advertised, the Bama offense could be better than any that Nick Saban has had. No team in the country has as deep of a backfield as Alabama, led by RB TJ Yeldon. There is speed on the outside in WR Amari Cooper, and perhaps the best TE in the country in OJ Howard. The defense will continue to be great, but it must learn how to handle the spread. They have struggled lately defending teams like Texas A&M, Auburn, and Oklahoma. The schedule is favorable. They play West Virginia and Florida, but both are in down this year. Auburn will be tough, but it is at home. The toughest game is Nov. 8 at LSU, but the Crimson Tide have an off week before that game. Keep an eye on the Oct. 4 game at Ole Miss. If both teams are undefeated, that could be a wild one.
4. Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1) - OU surprised a lot of people (me included) with their Sugar Bowl performance. They proved that they could play with anyone in the country. OU struggled last year throwing the football, finishing 90th nationally in passing offense. If Trevor Knight plays like he did versus Bama, OU could very well be in the playoff. The schedule sets up well for the Sooners, but they must avoid the upset bug. Last year, the Sooners fell victim to Texas. They must avoid a loss against inferior teams. The Big 12 will have some good teams, but most of them come to Norman. If the Sooners can survive a three week stretch that involves a trip to TCU, the annual Red River Rivalry game versus Texas, and a home game versus K State, they could run the table. OU is prone to an upset, so beware of the Red Raiders Nov. 15 in Lubbock.
5. Ohio State (11-1, 7-1) - OSU was 5th in the nation last year running the football. Even though they lost RB Carlos Hyde to the NFL, they should continue to roll offensively. QB Braxton Miller is back and is a legitimate contender to be in New York for the Heisman. The question is "can the Buckeyes stop anyone?" In a conference not known for its offense, the Buckeyes finished 46th nationally in total defense, giving up over 377 yards per game. The Buckeyes have a tough Sept. 6 game against Virginia Tech, and they must travel to East Lansing to take on the Spartans. But, their schedule once again is pretty easy. The toughest remaining opponent, Michigan, must come to Columbus to close the season. Barring an upset, the Buckeyes could easily wind up in the first ever playoff.
6. Wisconsin (10-2, 7-1) - QB Joel Stave returns, but he must improve 22/13 TD to INT ratio. Badgers fans hope, though, that RB Melvin Gordon can duplicate his impressive performance from last season of 1,609 yards rushing. Many consider Gordon a potential Heisman candidate. The Badgers have perhaps the most favorable schedule in the country. They have a very tough game in Houston Aug. 30 against LSU. But, LSU will be breaking in a new QB with a new set of WR's. It may take the Tigers time to get rolling, and the Badgers could be catching them at the right time. If the Badgers can get a win, they will be favored in every game the rest of the way. They avoid Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State in the regular season. The Badgers could very well find themselves in the college football playoff if the beat LSU and avoid an upset.
7. Baylor (10-2, 7-2) - QB Bryce Petty is in my top 5 for a Heisman finalist. He threw for over 4,000 yards last year while only throwing 3 picks. Those are unbelievable numbers! He will need more from a defense that ranked 36th in scoring defense nationally. The Bears really won't be tested until they travel to Texas Oct. 4. If they win, that could set up a showdown at Oklahoma Nov. 8 for the conference title. And if both teams are undefeated, the winner could find themselves in the playoffs. Key conference opponents TCU, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State all must travel to Waco.
8. Michigan State (10-2, 7-1) - The 2013 MSU offense didn't blow people away (80th nationally in total offense), but their defense sure did (2nd nationally in total defense). The Spartans were 3rd in the nation in scoring defense, the most important defensive category in my mind. If MSU is going to compete for a National Title, Connor Cook must gain the trust of his coaches. He was turned loose in the last two games versus Ohio State and Stanford, and he threw for over 300 yards in each game. Sept. 6 will really show what the Spartans are all about, as they travel to Eugene to take on Oregon. Win or lose, they could still be on the National Title mix. They have tough games but all are in East Lansing. The winner of the Nov. 8 game vs. Ohio State could set up a showdown with Wisconsin for the Big Ten title, as well as trip to the playoffs.
9. UCLA (9-3, 5-3)- QB Brett Hundley is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He had a very impressive 67% completion percentage last year, while throwing 24 TD's. UCLA must get better against the run, as they gave up over 169 yards per game last year. The Bruins will be tested early. A trip to UVa will not be easy in Week 1, and two weeks later in Austin will be even tougher. It is not unreasonable to think that the Bruins will start off the season 2-2 as they play in Tempe Sept. 25 against Arizona State. If the make it out of the that stretch 3-1, they could run the table the rest of the way as the rest of their tough games are at home.
10. Georgia (10-2, 6-2) - Aaron Murray, the SEC's all-time winningest QB, has graduated. Hutson Mason is good, but Dawg fans will come to appreciate what Murray did. RB Todd Gurley is Georgia's best back since, dare I say, Herschel Walker. But, the defense lost a lot through various departures. New DC Jeremy Pruitt will have his work cut out. The offense should be one of the better ones in the SEC, but the defense could be on the other end. The Dawgs again have a tough opening stretch versus Clemson and South Carolina. They nearly won at Clemson last year, but both teams won't be quite as good. Luckily for the Dawgs, they have an off week in between games. The Dawgs should be favored in every game after USC, but there are tough games remaining. Back to back trips to Missouri and Arkansas will be challenging, and Florida will be much improved.
11. Stanford (8-4, 5-3)- One of my favorite coaches is David Shaw. I love what he has done at Stanford. He continued to build on the success of Jim Harbaugh and has proven that he too is a great coach. I expect QB Kevin Hogan to improve on his 61% completion percentage. Stanford has a difficult opening stretch, with three of their first five games being against USC and on the road against both Washington and Notre Dame. They also must travel later in the year to Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA. Stanford will be one of the most talented teams in the country, but they have a pretty daunting schedule.
12. South Carolina (9-3, 5-3) - I hope USC fans realize how good Connor Shaw was. Shaw, like UGA QB Aaron Murray, was very underappreciated during his college stay. Dylan Thompson played well for Shaw last year, but Shaw may be the best QB ever at USC. Thompson appeared in 8 games last year, completing 58.4% of his 89 passes. Week 1 at home against Texas A&M will really show both teams are made of. Both will be breaking in a new full time QB. On paper, South Carolina may be the most talented team in SEC East. But, along with home games against the Aggies, UGA, and Missouri, they must travel to Florida and Auburn.
13. Clemson (9-3, 7-1) - Clemson must replace QB Tajh Boyd. Boyd passed for over 3,800 yards each of the past three years. Gone also is WR Sammy Watkins, who had over 100 receptions last year. The Tigers have a very difficult 6 game opening stretch. Outside of the Week 2 game against South Carolina State, the Tigers face teams that could beat them. Luckily for them, NC State, UNC, and Louisville are all at home. They only return 12 total starters, so they are probably a year away from competing for the ACC title.
14. Boise State (10-2, 7-1) - We have come to expect a yearly Top 10 finish from Boise. Last year was certainly a disappointment, as they went 8-5. This year's schedule is considerably easier. Gone is Washington, but they are replaced with a neutral site game in Atlanta against Ole Miss. Last year, the Broncos had to visit Fresno State and BYU, and they lost both. This year, both must come to the blue turf. The Broncos return 8 starters on a defense that gave up 24.8 points per game, so expect that to improve. The question is, "Can they get production from the quarterback position?" Grant Hedrick showed potential, starting 5 games last year. But, unless the defense suddenly becomes a top 10 defense, he will be expected to lead a high scoring offense. There are weapons at RB (Jay Ajayi) and WR (Matt Miller), and they will not face any stellar defenses. The Broncos should be favored in every conference game.
15. USC (9-3, 5-3)- I like the coaching change in LA. Lane Kiffin is a good coach, and he will prove that at Bama. But, he struggled as a head coach. There is talent on the roster at USC, and I think that Steve Sarkisian will get a lot out of it. The up-tempo style will favor the offensive weapons, although right now there aren't enough of them. QB Cody Kessler is more than capable at quarterback, but he needs more big plays. He needs more performances like he had in the Las Vagas Bowl, going 22/30 for 345 yards. They are probably a year away from being a Top 5 team, but I expect this squad to really compete. A Sept. 6 trip to Stanford will really show what this team is made of. The rest of the schedule is very manageable, as they avoid going to Oregon and Washington.
16. North Carolina (9-3, 6-2) - Many people felt the Tar Heels were going to be the surprise team of 2013. The finished the year well, winning 5 straight games before falling ACC Coastal Champs Duke. This year, I expect the Tar Heels to continue last year's last seasons success. Gone are QB Bryn Renner and stud TE Eric Ebron. If QB Marquise Williams can build on his performance from year, UNC could compete for the ACC Coastal title. But, they must run the football better, as they ranked 84th in the country. Returning 8 offensive starters, including 3 linemen, certainly will help. The defense gave up over 400 yards per game last year but does return 7 starters. Looming on the schedule are games at Clemson, Duke, and Miami, but they get Coastal contenders Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech both at home. 6-2 would most likely win the Coastal, especially if one of those wins is over Miami.
17. Mississippi (9-3, 5-3) - The Rebels may still be a year away, but they could soon be competing at an elite level. An upset last year over LSU showed just what these young Rebels are capable of. QB Bo Wallace had a terrific year last year, ranking 21st in passing yards. But, he must build on an 18/10 TD/INT ratio. They will be tested in Week 1 in the Georgia Dome versus Boise State. But if they survive, they should be 4-0 Oct. 4 when they host Alabama. That could very well be the biggest game in a long, long time in Oxford. That game, however, begins a brutal stretch of five games versus four teams that should be in the top 10 at some point. How they do during this stretch will determine if the Rebels are elite or not.
18. Miami (8-4, 5-3) - Miami's opener at Louisville will prove a lot for both teams. Al Golden is a good football coach, but his time may be running short. Louisville has some excitement with Bobby Petrino back, but they lost the heart and soul to their team in QB Teddy Bridgewater. Stephen Morris disappointed Cain fans last year and has since graduated. I expect them to be a lot better this year, assuming RB Duke Johnson can stay healthy. But, the schedule is brutal. Besides Louisville, the Canes are on the road against Nebraska, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech. They host crossover rival FSU and upstart UNC. The Canes will be much improved, but their record may not reflect it.
19. LSU (8-4, 5-3) - The Tigers must find a QB. It would help if he had some weapons. Zach Mettenger is gone, as are go-to WR's Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr. They return four offensive linemen, so they should be able to lean heavily on the running game. The defensive, which ranked 21st in scoring, returns seven starters. The good news for the Tigers is their toughest games are at home (Bama) and a neutral site (Wisconsin). The bad news is LSU still plays in the SEC West and has an annual crossover game against Florida.
20. Michigan (9-3, 6-2) - If ever there was an up and down QB last year, Devin Garner was that man. He passed for 451 yards versus Ohio State, and he needs to be that kind of player to lead Michigan to the Big Ten Championship. The offense was only 86th nationally, it struggled even more running the football, ranking 102nd. Much of Garner's struggles can be attributed to an inability to consistently run the football. With the return of 3 offensive linemen, expect the offensive numbers to improve. Tough road games at Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State loom, but other than that, it is very a manageable schedule. Brady Hoke is a very good coach and will have the Wolverines back competing for a Big Ten Title.
21. Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4) - A&M must replace Mr. Everything Johnny Football. But, there is plenty of talent in College Station led by WR's Malcome Kennedy and Sabian Holmes. It's hard to imagine the defense being even worse. Of the major defensive categories, the highest that Aggie ranked was pass efficiency defense (88th). Luckily for them, they return 9 starters. A&M would benefit from slowing down the tempo and leaning heavily on their talented backfield, led by Trey Williams and Tra Carson. The Aggies have a very difficult schedule, as they have tough road games against South Carolina, Mississippi St, Bama, and Auburn. Kevin Sumlin should be happy with a split.
22. Auburn (7-5, 4-4) - The good news? Nick Marshall is back, and the defense should be much improved having finished 86th nationally in total defense. The bad news? Gus Malzahn and crew will not be able to slip up on anyone this year. The Tigers won several close games last year, winning 5 games by 8 points or less. This year, I don't expect them to be that lucky. The schedule also gets a lot more difficult. The Tigers must travel to UGA, Bama, and a very tough non-conference game Sept. 18 at K State. Add to that trips against improving Mississippi State and Ole Miss. It is hard to see this Auburn team being as good record-wise, but they will be probably be even more talented.
23. Notre Dame (8-4) - The Irish will be much better this year, especially at the QB position. Everett Golson was badly missed last year. The Irish will need more out of their offense as their defense lost some stud linemen in Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix to the NFL. There are offensive weapons, led WR DeVaris Daniels, that should help out whoever wins the QB job. That said, the schedule is brutal. Trips to FSU, Arizona State, and USC are tough enough. Add home games versus Stanford, Louisville, UNC, and Michigan make it arguably the toughest schedule in the country. The Irish will be much better this year, but it will be tough improve on their 4 loses from last year.
24. Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4) - It seems that every other year MSU has a good football team. The Bulldogs return 16 starters, led by QB Dak Prescott. Prescott is on many Preseason All-SEC teams, and he has weapons to help him out. WR Jameon Lewis and TE Malcolm Johnson should help him have an even better season. This year's schedule sets up nicely for them. You are bound to have tough road games in the SEC, and the Bulldogs must travel to LSU and Alabama. But, they are hosting Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Auburn. If they hold serve at home, this could be a special year in Starkville.
25. Indiana (8-4, 5-3) - Indiana? Yes, Indiana. Here's why: The Hoosiers return 18 starters from a 5-7 team. Scoring wasn't a probably and shouldn't be this year. QB Nate Sudfeld returns, as do all 5 offensive linemen. If they are going to compete with the big boys in the Big Ten, they must improve defensively. The Hoosiers ranked 9th in total offense and 17th in scoring offense, but they ranked 114th nationally in scoring defense. The Hoosier gave up a whopping 38.8 points per game, something that obviously must be improved on. Ten returning starters on defense certainly can't hurt those numbers. The schedule sets up for an even better season this year. A trip to Missouri on Sept. 20 will tell us a lot about both teams. If they can win road games at Iowa (Oct. 11) and Rutgers (Nov. 15) this could be a really special season. The Hoosiers should be favored in at least 7 games.
Sources
Statistics were found at espn.com and ncaa.org
Returning starters were found at philsteele.com
Schedules were found at fbschedule.com
Depth charts were found at individual school websites
1. Florida State (12-0, 8-0) - Back is Jameis Winston. Gone are many of his weapons, including WR Kelvin Benjamin. Don't underestimate the lose of DC Jeremy Pruitt to Georgia. The schedule is a little tougher, as they must face Oklahoma State in Arlington in Week 1. But, the Cowboys will be down, as they only return 9 total starters. Notre Dame comes to town Oct. 18, and Florida will be a lot better this year. The Noles really weren't tested last year outside of the National Title game. Expect the Noles to face some challenges this year.
2. Oregon (11-1, 7-1) - I love Marcus Mariota. I think he is a future All-Pro QB. Had he not gotten hurt, there is a legit chance that the Ducks would have played for the National Title last year. Give the Ducks credit for scheduling Michigan State Sept. 6. The Spartans mirror Stanford, a team that has given the Ducks fits over the years. Their PAC-12 schedule has a few tough games, but only one of them is on the road in UCLA.
3. Alabama (11-1, 7-1) - Bama is once again loaded. If transfer QB Jacob Coker is as good as advertised, the Bama offense could be better than any that Nick Saban has had. No team in the country has as deep of a backfield as Alabama, led by RB TJ Yeldon. There is speed on the outside in WR Amari Cooper, and perhaps the best TE in the country in OJ Howard. The defense will continue to be great, but it must learn how to handle the spread. They have struggled lately defending teams like Texas A&M, Auburn, and Oklahoma. The schedule is favorable. They play West Virginia and Florida, but both are in down this year. Auburn will be tough, but it is at home. The toughest game is Nov. 8 at LSU, but the Crimson Tide have an off week before that game. Keep an eye on the Oct. 4 game at Ole Miss. If both teams are undefeated, that could be a wild one.
4. Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1) - OU surprised a lot of people (me included) with their Sugar Bowl performance. They proved that they could play with anyone in the country. OU struggled last year throwing the football, finishing 90th nationally in passing offense. If Trevor Knight plays like he did versus Bama, OU could very well be in the playoff. The schedule sets up well for the Sooners, but they must avoid the upset bug. Last year, the Sooners fell victim to Texas. They must avoid a loss against inferior teams. The Big 12 will have some good teams, but most of them come to Norman. If the Sooners can survive a three week stretch that involves a trip to TCU, the annual Red River Rivalry game versus Texas, and a home game versus K State, they could run the table. OU is prone to an upset, so beware of the Red Raiders Nov. 15 in Lubbock.
5. Ohio State (11-1, 7-1) - OSU was 5th in the nation last year running the football. Even though they lost RB Carlos Hyde to the NFL, they should continue to roll offensively. QB Braxton Miller is back and is a legitimate contender to be in New York for the Heisman. The question is "can the Buckeyes stop anyone?" In a conference not known for its offense, the Buckeyes finished 46th nationally in total defense, giving up over 377 yards per game. The Buckeyes have a tough Sept. 6 game against Virginia Tech, and they must travel to East Lansing to take on the Spartans. But, their schedule once again is pretty easy. The toughest remaining opponent, Michigan, must come to Columbus to close the season. Barring an upset, the Buckeyes could easily wind up in the first ever playoff.
6. Wisconsin (10-2, 7-1) - QB Joel Stave returns, but he must improve 22/13 TD to INT ratio. Badgers fans hope, though, that RB Melvin Gordon can duplicate his impressive performance from last season of 1,609 yards rushing. Many consider Gordon a potential Heisman candidate. The Badgers have perhaps the most favorable schedule in the country. They have a very tough game in Houston Aug. 30 against LSU. But, LSU will be breaking in a new QB with a new set of WR's. It may take the Tigers time to get rolling, and the Badgers could be catching them at the right time. If the Badgers can get a win, they will be favored in every game the rest of the way. They avoid Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State in the regular season. The Badgers could very well find themselves in the college football playoff if the beat LSU and avoid an upset.
7. Baylor (10-2, 7-2) - QB Bryce Petty is in my top 5 for a Heisman finalist. He threw for over 4,000 yards last year while only throwing 3 picks. Those are unbelievable numbers! He will need more from a defense that ranked 36th in scoring defense nationally. The Bears really won't be tested until they travel to Texas Oct. 4. If they win, that could set up a showdown at Oklahoma Nov. 8 for the conference title. And if both teams are undefeated, the winner could find themselves in the playoffs. Key conference opponents TCU, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State all must travel to Waco.
8. Michigan State (10-2, 7-1) - The 2013 MSU offense didn't blow people away (80th nationally in total offense), but their defense sure did (2nd nationally in total defense). The Spartans were 3rd in the nation in scoring defense, the most important defensive category in my mind. If MSU is going to compete for a National Title, Connor Cook must gain the trust of his coaches. He was turned loose in the last two games versus Ohio State and Stanford, and he threw for over 300 yards in each game. Sept. 6 will really show what the Spartans are all about, as they travel to Eugene to take on Oregon. Win or lose, they could still be on the National Title mix. They have tough games but all are in East Lansing. The winner of the Nov. 8 game vs. Ohio State could set up a showdown with Wisconsin for the Big Ten title, as well as trip to the playoffs.
9. UCLA (9-3, 5-3)- QB Brett Hundley is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He had a very impressive 67% completion percentage last year, while throwing 24 TD's. UCLA must get better against the run, as they gave up over 169 yards per game last year. The Bruins will be tested early. A trip to UVa will not be easy in Week 1, and two weeks later in Austin will be even tougher. It is not unreasonable to think that the Bruins will start off the season 2-2 as they play in Tempe Sept. 25 against Arizona State. If the make it out of the that stretch 3-1, they could run the table the rest of the way as the rest of their tough games are at home.
10. Georgia (10-2, 6-2) - Aaron Murray, the SEC's all-time winningest QB, has graduated. Hutson Mason is good, but Dawg fans will come to appreciate what Murray did. RB Todd Gurley is Georgia's best back since, dare I say, Herschel Walker. But, the defense lost a lot through various departures. New DC Jeremy Pruitt will have his work cut out. The offense should be one of the better ones in the SEC, but the defense could be on the other end. The Dawgs again have a tough opening stretch versus Clemson and South Carolina. They nearly won at Clemson last year, but both teams won't be quite as good. Luckily for the Dawgs, they have an off week in between games. The Dawgs should be favored in every game after USC, but there are tough games remaining. Back to back trips to Missouri and Arkansas will be challenging, and Florida will be much improved.
11. Stanford (8-4, 5-3)- One of my favorite coaches is David Shaw. I love what he has done at Stanford. He continued to build on the success of Jim Harbaugh and has proven that he too is a great coach. I expect QB Kevin Hogan to improve on his 61% completion percentage. Stanford has a difficult opening stretch, with three of their first five games being against USC and on the road against both Washington and Notre Dame. They also must travel later in the year to Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA. Stanford will be one of the most talented teams in the country, but they have a pretty daunting schedule.
12. South Carolina (9-3, 5-3) - I hope USC fans realize how good Connor Shaw was. Shaw, like UGA QB Aaron Murray, was very underappreciated during his college stay. Dylan Thompson played well for Shaw last year, but Shaw may be the best QB ever at USC. Thompson appeared in 8 games last year, completing 58.4% of his 89 passes. Week 1 at home against Texas A&M will really show both teams are made of. Both will be breaking in a new full time QB. On paper, South Carolina may be the most talented team in SEC East. But, along with home games against the Aggies, UGA, and Missouri, they must travel to Florida and Auburn.
13. Clemson (9-3, 7-1) - Clemson must replace QB Tajh Boyd. Boyd passed for over 3,800 yards each of the past three years. Gone also is WR Sammy Watkins, who had over 100 receptions last year. The Tigers have a very difficult 6 game opening stretch. Outside of the Week 2 game against South Carolina State, the Tigers face teams that could beat them. Luckily for them, NC State, UNC, and Louisville are all at home. They only return 12 total starters, so they are probably a year away from competing for the ACC title.
14. Boise State (10-2, 7-1) - We have come to expect a yearly Top 10 finish from Boise. Last year was certainly a disappointment, as they went 8-5. This year's schedule is considerably easier. Gone is Washington, but they are replaced with a neutral site game in Atlanta against Ole Miss. Last year, the Broncos had to visit Fresno State and BYU, and they lost both. This year, both must come to the blue turf. The Broncos return 8 starters on a defense that gave up 24.8 points per game, so expect that to improve. The question is, "Can they get production from the quarterback position?" Grant Hedrick showed potential, starting 5 games last year. But, unless the defense suddenly becomes a top 10 defense, he will be expected to lead a high scoring offense. There are weapons at RB (Jay Ajayi) and WR (Matt Miller), and they will not face any stellar defenses. The Broncos should be favored in every conference game.
15. USC (9-3, 5-3)- I like the coaching change in LA. Lane Kiffin is a good coach, and he will prove that at Bama. But, he struggled as a head coach. There is talent on the roster at USC, and I think that Steve Sarkisian will get a lot out of it. The up-tempo style will favor the offensive weapons, although right now there aren't enough of them. QB Cody Kessler is more than capable at quarterback, but he needs more big plays. He needs more performances like he had in the Las Vagas Bowl, going 22/30 for 345 yards. They are probably a year away from being a Top 5 team, but I expect this squad to really compete. A Sept. 6 trip to Stanford will really show what this team is made of. The rest of the schedule is very manageable, as they avoid going to Oregon and Washington.
16. North Carolina (9-3, 6-2) - Many people felt the Tar Heels were going to be the surprise team of 2013. The finished the year well, winning 5 straight games before falling ACC Coastal Champs Duke. This year, I expect the Tar Heels to continue last year's last seasons success. Gone are QB Bryn Renner and stud TE Eric Ebron. If QB Marquise Williams can build on his performance from year, UNC could compete for the ACC Coastal title. But, they must run the football better, as they ranked 84th in the country. Returning 8 offensive starters, including 3 linemen, certainly will help. The defense gave up over 400 yards per game last year but does return 7 starters. Looming on the schedule are games at Clemson, Duke, and Miami, but they get Coastal contenders Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech both at home. 6-2 would most likely win the Coastal, especially if one of those wins is over Miami.
17. Mississippi (9-3, 5-3) - The Rebels may still be a year away, but they could soon be competing at an elite level. An upset last year over LSU showed just what these young Rebels are capable of. QB Bo Wallace had a terrific year last year, ranking 21st in passing yards. But, he must build on an 18/10 TD/INT ratio. They will be tested in Week 1 in the Georgia Dome versus Boise State. But if they survive, they should be 4-0 Oct. 4 when they host Alabama. That could very well be the biggest game in a long, long time in Oxford. That game, however, begins a brutal stretch of five games versus four teams that should be in the top 10 at some point. How they do during this stretch will determine if the Rebels are elite or not.
18. Miami (8-4, 5-3) - Miami's opener at Louisville will prove a lot for both teams. Al Golden is a good football coach, but his time may be running short. Louisville has some excitement with Bobby Petrino back, but they lost the heart and soul to their team in QB Teddy Bridgewater. Stephen Morris disappointed Cain fans last year and has since graduated. I expect them to be a lot better this year, assuming RB Duke Johnson can stay healthy. But, the schedule is brutal. Besides Louisville, the Canes are on the road against Nebraska, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech. They host crossover rival FSU and upstart UNC. The Canes will be much improved, but their record may not reflect it.
19. LSU (8-4, 5-3) - The Tigers must find a QB. It would help if he had some weapons. Zach Mettenger is gone, as are go-to WR's Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr. They return four offensive linemen, so they should be able to lean heavily on the running game. The defensive, which ranked 21st in scoring, returns seven starters. The good news for the Tigers is their toughest games are at home (Bama) and a neutral site (Wisconsin). The bad news is LSU still plays in the SEC West and has an annual crossover game against Florida.
20. Michigan (9-3, 6-2) - If ever there was an up and down QB last year, Devin Garner was that man. He passed for 451 yards versus Ohio State, and he needs to be that kind of player to lead Michigan to the Big Ten Championship. The offense was only 86th nationally, it struggled even more running the football, ranking 102nd. Much of Garner's struggles can be attributed to an inability to consistently run the football. With the return of 3 offensive linemen, expect the offensive numbers to improve. Tough road games at Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State loom, but other than that, it is very a manageable schedule. Brady Hoke is a very good coach and will have the Wolverines back competing for a Big Ten Title.
21. Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4) - A&M must replace Mr. Everything Johnny Football. But, there is plenty of talent in College Station led by WR's Malcome Kennedy and Sabian Holmes. It's hard to imagine the defense being even worse. Of the major defensive categories, the highest that Aggie ranked was pass efficiency defense (88th). Luckily for them, they return 9 starters. A&M would benefit from slowing down the tempo and leaning heavily on their talented backfield, led by Trey Williams and Tra Carson. The Aggies have a very difficult schedule, as they have tough road games against South Carolina, Mississippi St, Bama, and Auburn. Kevin Sumlin should be happy with a split.
23. Notre Dame (8-4) - The Irish will be much better this year, especially at the QB position. Everett Golson was badly missed last year. The Irish will need more out of their offense as their defense lost some stud linemen in Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix to the NFL. There are offensive weapons, led WR DeVaris Daniels, that should help out whoever wins the QB job. That said, the schedule is brutal. Trips to FSU, Arizona State, and USC are tough enough. Add home games versus Stanford, Louisville, UNC, and Michigan make it arguably the toughest schedule in the country. The Irish will be much better this year, but it will be tough improve on their 4 loses from last year.
24. Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4) - It seems that every other year MSU has a good football team. The Bulldogs return 16 starters, led by QB Dak Prescott. Prescott is on many Preseason All-SEC teams, and he has weapons to help him out. WR Jameon Lewis and TE Malcolm Johnson should help him have an even better season. This year's schedule sets up nicely for them. You are bound to have tough road games in the SEC, and the Bulldogs must travel to LSU and Alabama. But, they are hosting Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Auburn. If they hold serve at home, this could be a special year in Starkville.
25. Indiana (8-4, 5-3) - Indiana? Yes, Indiana. Here's why: The Hoosiers return 18 starters from a 5-7 team. Scoring wasn't a probably and shouldn't be this year. QB Nate Sudfeld returns, as do all 5 offensive linemen. If they are going to compete with the big boys in the Big Ten, they must improve defensively. The Hoosiers ranked 9th in total offense and 17th in scoring offense, but they ranked 114th nationally in scoring defense. The Hoosier gave up a whopping 38.8 points per game, something that obviously must be improved on. Ten returning starters on defense certainly can't hurt those numbers. The schedule sets up for an even better season this year. A trip to Missouri on Sept. 20 will tell us a lot about both teams. If they can win road games at Iowa (Oct. 11) and Rutgers (Nov. 15) this could be a really special season. The Hoosiers should be favored in at least 7 games.
Sources
Statistics were found at espn.com and ncaa.org
Returning starters were found at philsteele.com
Schedules were found at fbschedule.com
Depth charts were found at individual school websites
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Thanksgiving picks
Recap
Second straight winning week. I was really surprised that Missouri blew out a good Ole Miss team. I knew UGA was better than UK, but I was surprised that their defense showed up to play. Finished the week 3-2, making me 12-15 since making the picks public
Preview
1. Clemson (+6.5) vs USC
Clemson has been dominated lately in this series, but the Tigers will be ready. Tahj Boyd will go out a winner as the Tigers win big. Clemson wins 30-20
2. Tennessee (-3.5) vs Kentucky
Kentucky is bad. Tennessee is average. Not much to say here, other than look for UT to roll big. Vols win 41-20.
3. Nebraska(-2.5) vs Iowa
Not sure why I'm picking this one. Iowa is much better at home than on the road. Nebraska is a better home team than on the road. Since the game is in Lincoln, I'll take Nebraska. NU wins 27-20
4. Duke (+6) vs UNC
Duke needs this one to win the Coastal. UNC is a hot team, winning five straight. It's played in Chapel Hill, but that's not a huge home field advantage. Duke will play hard, and they're better than people think. Blue Devils win outright 31-30
5. UGA (-3) vs GT
I've told family and friends that if GT is ever going to beat UGA, now is the year. Aaron Murray is out for the year, but GT has a porous defense regardless. I think UGA will try to run it down GT's throat, and they will be successful. Tech will keep it close, but UGA pulls away late. UGA wins 28-20
4. Ff
Second straight winning week. I was really surprised that Missouri blew out a good Ole Miss team. I knew UGA was better than UK, but I was surprised that their defense showed up to play. Finished the week 3-2, making me 12-15 since making the picks public
Preview
1. Clemson (+6.5) vs USC
Clemson has been dominated lately in this series, but the Tigers will be ready. Tahj Boyd will go out a winner as the Tigers win big. Clemson wins 30-20
2. Tennessee (-3.5) vs Kentucky
Kentucky is bad. Tennessee is average. Not much to say here, other than look for UT to roll big. Vols win 41-20.
3. Nebraska(-2.5) vs Iowa
Not sure why I'm picking this one. Iowa is much better at home than on the road. Nebraska is a better home team than on the road. Since the game is in Lincoln, I'll take Nebraska. NU wins 27-20
4. Duke (+6) vs UNC
Duke needs this one to win the Coastal. UNC is a hot team, winning five straight. It's played in Chapel Hill, but that's not a huge home field advantage. Duke will play hard, and they're better than people think. Blue Devils win outright 31-30
5. UGA (-3) vs GT
I've told family and friends that if GT is ever going to beat UGA, now is the year. Aaron Murray is out for the year, but GT has a porous defense regardless. I think UGA will try to run it down GT's throat, and they will be successful. Tech will keep it close, but UGA pulls away late. UGA wins 28-20
4. Ff
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