Recap
Finally...a winning week! As I stated, I feel that I know Ga Tech and UGA pretty well. I thought that Auburn was playing better football. And even though they got a little (a lot!) lucky on the last play, there is no doubt in my mind that Auburn was the better team. I expected Tech to get man-handled by Clemson, and they did. USC did not surprise me one bit by beating Stanford. Last week's record: 3-2. Overall record since making picks public: 8-13
Preview for the Week of Nov 23
1. Minnesota (+16) vs Wisconsin
Okay, I know very little about the Big 10. Yet, for reason reason I am picking two of their games this week?! The reason is solely because this week's slate of games is so dreadfully bad. I like the turnaround that Minnesota has made, even with Jerry Kill being in the press box. I think that the Badgers win, but not by 16. Wisconsin wins 27-24
2. Michigan (+6) at Iowa
Iowa plays wells at home, which I guess is why they are favored versus the Wolverines. Michigan has to be one of the biggest disappointments in the country. They are due for a big win, and I don't think that they get it next week. But, I can see them going on the road and beating an average Iowa team. Michigan wins 28-26
3. Ole Miss (+3) vs. Missouri
Missouri is favored, but they really haven't played a tough road game yet. Yes, they won at UGA, but that UGA team wasn't close to full strength. Hugh Freeze has momentum high in Oxford, and I think the Rebels get a huge win here. This win could get them in the Cotton Bowl talk. Rebels roll 34-24
4. Oklahoma State (+10) vs. Baylor
This game reminds me with one above. Like Mizzou, Baylor has yet to win a road game versus a Top 15 opponent. The OSU offense isn't quite as prolific as in the past, but their defense is better. Stillwater is a really tough place to win in, and I think the Bears will struggle. Expect a battle, but I'll take OSU to win outright. OSU wins 33-30
5. Kentucky (+24) at UGA
I struggled over this one and UCLA plus 2.5 versus ASU. I don't know much about the PAC 12, so I'll go with my heart. Aaron Murray will be playing in his final home game in Athens, so I'm sure the offense will put up points. But, can the defense get enough stops to cover? If Vandy can score on UGA, I think the Wildcats can do. UGA wins easily, but won't cover. UGA wins 38-21
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Recap and Preview of Games 11/16/2013
Recap
Another 2-3 week puts me at 5-11 since I've made my picks public. Bad, but I was very close to having an undefeated week last week. NC State was winning until giving up a late TD drive to Duke. Then, somehow, they threw back to back pick 6's and gave away the win for me! LSU likewise really folded down the stretch, giving up a late score. Early on, I really thought that LSU was the better team over Bama. And Tennessee battled Auburn for a while. I wondered if Tennessee would be able to score enough to keep up with Nick Marshall and the Auburn offense. They did for a while, just not long enough. Of my three weeks, though, that I have made my picks public, this was by far my best week.
Preview for 11/16
1. Clemson (-10.5) vs. Georgia Tech
I grew up a huge Georgia Tech fan and still follow them closely today. This Tech team struggles on the road. Just look at the BYU and Virginia games. Tech struggled against a woeful UVa team, and got blown out by an average Cougar team. I think that Tech will be competitive for a while, but they won't be able to stop Clemson. Tigers win in a route 41-20
2. Auburn (-3.5) vs. Georgia
I grew up a Jacket but graduated a Dawg. I feel I know the character of this team better than any team. The Dawgs are slowly getting healthy. And when healthy, they are as good as anyone in the country, at least offensively. The problem is, though, they are young and pourous on defense. Like Tennessee, the Dawgs won't be able to score enough to outscore the Tigers. Auburn wins 38-28
3. Miami (-3) vs. Duke
Which Miami team will show up? They looked pretty bad against UNC, FSU, and Virginia Tech. They will need to play much better to beat a Duke team fighting for the Coastal Division title. Duke, however, must get more from their offense. They really struggled last week versus NC State. Look for a low scoring game, and when that happens, I always take the experienced QB. Miami wins 20-13
4. South Carolina (-13.5) vs. Florida
Florida is staring 5-7 right in the eye, and there is no doubt head coach Will Muschamp is feeling the heat. Should he though? After all, the Gators have more injuries than an ER. The Gamecocks have a good shot at the SEC East title, and will be ready to play. If South Carolina wins, and Missouri loses just once, the Gamecocks should win the 3 way tie with Mizzou and UGA based on their BCS ranking. Because of all that is on the line, USC will be ready. Gamecocks roll 41-17
5. USC (+4.5) vs. Stanford
Stanford is coming a very emotional win versus Oregon. This has letdown written all over it. I like how USC interim coach Ed Orgeron has weathered the ship. I can't say that I follow Pac-12 football too closely, but I do know that the Trojans are playing a whole lot better and still have a legitimate shot at the Pac 12 South title. For that reason, I am going with the Trojans in the upset. USC wins 27-26
Another 2-3 week puts me at 5-11 since I've made my picks public. Bad, but I was very close to having an undefeated week last week. NC State was winning until giving up a late TD drive to Duke. Then, somehow, they threw back to back pick 6's and gave away the win for me! LSU likewise really folded down the stretch, giving up a late score. Early on, I really thought that LSU was the better team over Bama. And Tennessee battled Auburn for a while. I wondered if Tennessee would be able to score enough to keep up with Nick Marshall and the Auburn offense. They did for a while, just not long enough. Of my three weeks, though, that I have made my picks public, this was by far my best week.
Preview for 11/16
1. Clemson (-10.5) vs. Georgia Tech
I grew up a huge Georgia Tech fan and still follow them closely today. This Tech team struggles on the road. Just look at the BYU and Virginia games. Tech struggled against a woeful UVa team, and got blown out by an average Cougar team. I think that Tech will be competitive for a while, but they won't be able to stop Clemson. Tigers win in a route 41-20
2. Auburn (-3.5) vs. Georgia
I grew up a Jacket but graduated a Dawg. I feel I know the character of this team better than any team. The Dawgs are slowly getting healthy. And when healthy, they are as good as anyone in the country, at least offensively. The problem is, though, they are young and pourous on defense. Like Tennessee, the Dawgs won't be able to score enough to outscore the Tigers. Auburn wins 38-28
3. Miami (-3) vs. Duke
Which Miami team will show up? They looked pretty bad against UNC, FSU, and Virginia Tech. They will need to play much better to beat a Duke team fighting for the Coastal Division title. Duke, however, must get more from their offense. They really struggled last week versus NC State. Look for a low scoring game, and when that happens, I always take the experienced QB. Miami wins 20-13
4. South Carolina (-13.5) vs. Florida
Florida is staring 5-7 right in the eye, and there is no doubt head coach Will Muschamp is feeling the heat. Should he though? After all, the Gators have more injuries than an ER. The Gamecocks have a good shot at the SEC East title, and will be ready to play. If South Carolina wins, and Missouri loses just once, the Gamecocks should win the 3 way tie with Mizzou and UGA based on their BCS ranking. Because of all that is on the line, USC will be ready. Gamecocks roll 41-17
5. USC (+4.5) vs. Stanford
Stanford is coming a very emotional win versus Oregon. This has letdown written all over it. I like how USC interim coach Ed Orgeron has weathered the ship. I can't say that I follow Pac-12 football too closely, but I do know that the Trojans are playing a whole lot better and still have a legitimate shot at the Pac 12 South title. For that reason, I am going with the Trojans in the upset. USC wins 27-26
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Preview of game the week of Nov. 9
Recap
Yikes! Home dogs did not fair well! Things that we learned: Ohio State, Florida State, and Texas A&M are really good...so good that they covered versus a very big spread. But, I still think those were the wise picks. Every now and then you have a week like that. This week we finished 1-4
Games for the week of November 9
1. Stanford (+11.5) vs. Oregon
I honestly think that Stanford is going to win this game. I know good Oregon is. I get it. Marcus Mariotta is my Heisman pick, and he's been great despite losing Chip Kelley to the NFL. But, Stanford know how to beat the Ducks, having done so 2 out of the past 3 seasons. Even if Stanford doesn't win, I still think that would win with 11.5 points. Stanford win 26-23
2. Tennessee (+8.5) vs. Auburn
Which Tennessee team will show up? Will it be the team that beat South Carolina and nearly beat Georgia, or will it be the team that laid an egg versus Missouri. Both teams are young. When that is the case, always favor the home team. I think Tennessee will win outright, but I must admit that I am worried QB Justin Worley is hurt. UT wins 28-27
3. NC State (+9.5) at Duke
Duke is giving 9.5 points?! I really like David Cutliff and the job he is doing at Duke. But I just can't buy into the Blue Devils, especially this much. I'll take Duke to win, but barely. Duke wins 31-26
4. Utah (+7) vs. Arizona State
I don't feel great about this one, but I need 5 games to pick. If the Utah team that beat Stanford shows up, they will win outright. ASU is fighting for a Pac 12 title birth, so I think they'll come to play. I'll take ASU to win outright, but Utah wins plus the points. ASU wins 30-24
5. LSU (+12.5) at Alabama
The last time LSU went to Bama they won 6-3 in overtime. Last year's contest was a nailbiter in which A.J. McCarron led the Crimson Tide on game winning drive in the final minute. So what does that mean? LSU knows what it takes to play with and beat Bama. Bama has really only faced two good teams - Texas A&M and Ole Miss. It would not surprise me one bit if LSU won this game. Bama wins a close one 24-20
Yikes! Home dogs did not fair well! Things that we learned: Ohio State, Florida State, and Texas A&M are really good...so good that they covered versus a very big spread. But, I still think those were the wise picks. Every now and then you have a week like that. This week we finished 1-4
Games for the week of November 9
1. Stanford (+11.5) vs. Oregon
I honestly think that Stanford is going to win this game. I know good Oregon is. I get it. Marcus Mariotta is my Heisman pick, and he's been great despite losing Chip Kelley to the NFL. But, Stanford know how to beat the Ducks, having done so 2 out of the past 3 seasons. Even if Stanford doesn't win, I still think that would win with 11.5 points. Stanford win 26-23
2. Tennessee (+8.5) vs. Auburn
Which Tennessee team will show up? Will it be the team that beat South Carolina and nearly beat Georgia, or will it be the team that laid an egg versus Missouri. Both teams are young. When that is the case, always favor the home team. I think Tennessee will win outright, but I must admit that I am worried QB Justin Worley is hurt. UT wins 28-27
3. NC State (+9.5) at Duke
Duke is giving 9.5 points?! I really like David Cutliff and the job he is doing at Duke. But I just can't buy into the Blue Devils, especially this much. I'll take Duke to win, but barely. Duke wins 31-26
4. Utah (+7) vs. Arizona State
I don't feel great about this one, but I need 5 games to pick. If the Utah team that beat Stanford shows up, they will win outright. ASU is fighting for a Pac 12 title birth, so I think they'll come to play. I'll take ASU to win outright, but Utah wins plus the points. ASU wins 30-24
5. LSU (+12.5) at Alabama
The last time LSU went to Bama they won 6-3 in overtime. Last year's contest was a nailbiter in which A.J. McCarron led the Crimson Tide on game winning drive in the final minute. So what does that mean? LSU knows what it takes to play with and beat Bama. Bama has really only faced two good teams - Texas A&M and Ole Miss. It would not surprise me one bit if LSU won this game. Bama wins a close one 24-20
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Recap and Preview of November 2 Games
Recap of Previous Week
Any avid better or follower of games will tell you to always look at the injury report. Oops! While I did know who was hurt, I did not factor it enough into my picks. I got away with it with my South Carolina pick, only because Connor Shaw came in to save the day. But, my Boise St. and TCU picks failed largely because of poor backup QB play. Lesson learned. The Miles Minute had a mediocre week and finished 2-3
Picks for November 2
1. Miami (+22) at FSU
When I first saw this line, I was blown away. Does Vegas think FSU is THIS much better than Miami? While I agree that Miami is VERY lucky to be undefeated, they are still are a quality ball club. Stephen Morris must play better if the Hurricanes stand a chance. I think FSU wins. In fact, I don't think it'll be close. But, I do think the Hurricanes will hang in there for a while and beat the spread.
FSU wins 41-24
2. UGA (-2) vs. Florida
I'm a UGA grad. One of those unwritten rules is to not bet with emotion. However, I think I have a good feel on this UGA team. They thrive when emotion is involved. They can rise up against the best, or play down to weaker opponents. Despite their record, Florida is a quality opponent. The main reason that UGA wins is that Florida is on their backup QB. In terms of statistics, Aaron Murray is one of the greatest QB's in SEC history. With a depleted and porous defense, he will be forced to carry the Dawgs. If he limits his mistakes, I think he will carry the Dawgs and keep their slim hopes at an SEC East title alive.
UGA wins 24-20
3. UTEP (+47) at Texas A&M
Another big line for Aggies. Last week, I picked them to cover versus Vandy, and they did. I think this one will certainly be another blowout, but I think UTEP wins plus the points. They are averaging 27.7 points per game, and the Aggies are giving up 29 points per game. Aggies win big, but not quite by 47.
Texas A&M wins 55-20
4. Washington State (+12.5) vs. Arizona State
I wish I had the guts to pick this game outright. I really like what Mike Leach is doing at WSU. The Cougars boast the 6th best passing offense in the country, and are coming off of a bye. ASU is pretty solid against the pass, so I think this game will come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. The Cougars are one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin, ranking 103. If they avoid turnovers, I believe WSU can win outright. I see a late pick turning the game, and because of that, I'll take ASU.
ASU wins 27-21
5. Purdue (+31.5) vs. Ohio State
You can always count on this Ohio State team to score, thanks largely to QB Braxton Miller. But, last week the defense really came to play and limited Penn State to 357 yards of total offense. If that continues, they may start to receive more second place votes, which will elevate its BCS ranking. I think OSU has a bit of a letdown versus a woeful Purdue team. The offense will put up points again, but I believe the defense will get scored on. The Purdue offense is only averaging 13 points per game, and I believe that is exactly what they get.
Ohio State wins 41-13
*These picks are for entertainment purposes only*
Any avid better or follower of games will tell you to always look at the injury report. Oops! While I did know who was hurt, I did not factor it enough into my picks. I got away with it with my South Carolina pick, only because Connor Shaw came in to save the day. But, my Boise St. and TCU picks failed largely because of poor backup QB play. Lesson learned. The Miles Minute had a mediocre week and finished 2-3
Picks for November 2
1. Miami (+22) at FSU
When I first saw this line, I was blown away. Does Vegas think FSU is THIS much better than Miami? While I agree that Miami is VERY lucky to be undefeated, they are still are a quality ball club. Stephen Morris must play better if the Hurricanes stand a chance. I think FSU wins. In fact, I don't think it'll be close. But, I do think the Hurricanes will hang in there for a while and beat the spread.
FSU wins 41-24
2. UGA (-2) vs. Florida
I'm a UGA grad. One of those unwritten rules is to not bet with emotion. However, I think I have a good feel on this UGA team. They thrive when emotion is involved. They can rise up against the best, or play down to weaker opponents. Despite their record, Florida is a quality opponent. The main reason that UGA wins is that Florida is on their backup QB. In terms of statistics, Aaron Murray is one of the greatest QB's in SEC history. With a depleted and porous defense, he will be forced to carry the Dawgs. If he limits his mistakes, I think he will carry the Dawgs and keep their slim hopes at an SEC East title alive.
UGA wins 24-20
3. UTEP (+47) at Texas A&M
Another big line for Aggies. Last week, I picked them to cover versus Vandy, and they did. I think this one will certainly be another blowout, but I think UTEP wins plus the points. They are averaging 27.7 points per game, and the Aggies are giving up 29 points per game. Aggies win big, but not quite by 47.
Texas A&M wins 55-20
4. Washington State (+12.5) vs. Arizona State
I wish I had the guts to pick this game outright. I really like what Mike Leach is doing at WSU. The Cougars boast the 6th best passing offense in the country, and are coming off of a bye. ASU is pretty solid against the pass, so I think this game will come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. The Cougars are one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin, ranking 103. If they avoid turnovers, I believe WSU can win outright. I see a late pick turning the game, and because of that, I'll take ASU.
ASU wins 27-21
5. Purdue (+31.5) vs. Ohio State
You can always count on this Ohio State team to score, thanks largely to QB Braxton Miller. But, last week the defense really came to play and limited Penn State to 357 yards of total offense. If that continues, they may start to receive more second place votes, which will elevate its BCS ranking. I think OSU has a bit of a letdown versus a woeful Purdue team. The offense will put up points again, but I believe the defense will get scored on. The Purdue offense is only averaging 13 points per game, and I believe that is exactly what they get.
Ohio State wins 41-13
*These picks are for entertainment purposes only*
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Picks for October 26
I've waited until after the BCS Rankings to make my first entry, for two reasons:
1) Unlike other sports, preseason and early season predictions are essentially useless.
2) Along that note, we now have a better idea of who's good, who's bad, and who will compete to play for the National Championship
Thoughts and predictions for games the week of October 25, 2013
1. Boise St (+7.5) vs. BYU
Boise State has recovered quite well since getting demolished in Week 1 by Washington. The Broncos will be without Senior QB Joe Southwick, who has thrown 11 TD's in 7 games. That will force running back Jay Ajayi to take up more of the slack. After getting a bit of a wake up call at Washington, BYU went on the road to Fresno and lost by 1 to a good Bulldog team. They then went to Utah State and won. Provo is a tough place to play, but the Broncos should at least be able to cover. I'll go with the Cougars to win, but this is a toss up to me.
BYU wins 27-23
2. Kent State (+2) vs. Buffalo
There is one main reason that I went with this pick: 95% of the country is going the other way. The general rule of thumb is that when that is the case, and the line hasn't moved much, go the other way. The Golden Flashes are just 2-6, a year after being one of the darlings of college football. Buffalo, however, is 6-2 and coming off two wins in which the combined scores were 65-3. If I blindly picked this game, I would surely pick the Bulls, but there is something fishy about this line.
Kent State wins 23-20
3. Texas A&M (-17) vs. Vandy
I usually don't like spreads that are this high. But, there are three factors in picking this game. 1) Vandy's QB Austyn Carta-Samuels is out. A struggling Commodores offense will struggle even more, even against a pourous defense like the Aggies. 2) Vanderbilt is just simply not that good. Yes, they beat Georgia, but it was a struggling UGA team without its top two running backs, top three wide receivers, and a very young defense. 3) In line with #2, nearly 60% of the betting public is picking Vanderbilt. While that's not terribly high, it does tell me that the public is making Vanderbilt better than they actually are. The Commodores must keep up with Johnny Manziel, but they only rank 68th in total offense. We will get to see what kind of coach Kevin Sumlin is. His team is now out of the national hunt, and most likely out of the SEC Title race as well. Can he salvage the season? I believe in Sumlin, and I'm guessing he and the Aggies will play MAD. Take the Aggies, BIG.
Texas A&M wins 48-23
4. TCU (-2) vs. Texas
It's amazing to me that Texas is getting 77% of the betting action. Sure, TCU is struggling record-wise, but this is a good football team. Keep in mind that many "experts" picked the Horned Frogs to win the Big 12. They have struggled to replace QB Casey Pachall, but their defense is still 19th in the country. And that is AFTER they played solid offenses in LSU, SMU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The best word that can be used to describe Texas over the past few years in fickle. They beat Oklahoma a few weeks ago, but have struggled in true road games. Texas signal caller David Ash is out, and expect the Horned Frogs to be fired up for this one. Frogs roll.
TCU wins 28-20
5. South Carolina (+3) vs Missouri
Just how good is Missouri? That is the true unknown question in the SEC. Missouri beat two solid teams in Georgia and Florida, but both teams have been decimated by injuries. Georgia had just lost 4 of its top playmakers, and still managed 26 points against the Tigers. Missouri managed to move the ball on the 4th best defense in the country in Florida, and they will need to keep up versus Jadeveon Clowney and Co. South Carolina is coming off a very disappointing loss against an improving Tennessee team. Surprisingly, nearly 80% of the betting public thinks Missouri will cover. It is a night game in Missouri, which certainly gives the Tigers an edge. But, emotion can only go so far. The Tigers have yet to face a well-rounded team this year. This game could possibly decide the SEC East, and Spurrier has undoubtedly told his guys that. I think the Gamecocks win outright.
South Carolina wins 33-27
*Please note that these picks are for entertainment purposes only*
1) Unlike other sports, preseason and early season predictions are essentially useless.
2) Along that note, we now have a better idea of who's good, who's bad, and who will compete to play for the National Championship
Thoughts and predictions for games the week of October 25, 2013
1. Boise St (+7.5) vs. BYU
Boise State has recovered quite well since getting demolished in Week 1 by Washington. The Broncos will be without Senior QB Joe Southwick, who has thrown 11 TD's in 7 games. That will force running back Jay Ajayi to take up more of the slack. After getting a bit of a wake up call at Washington, BYU went on the road to Fresno and lost by 1 to a good Bulldog team. They then went to Utah State and won. Provo is a tough place to play, but the Broncos should at least be able to cover. I'll go with the Cougars to win, but this is a toss up to me.
BYU wins 27-23
2. Kent State (+2) vs. Buffalo
There is one main reason that I went with this pick: 95% of the country is going the other way. The general rule of thumb is that when that is the case, and the line hasn't moved much, go the other way. The Golden Flashes are just 2-6, a year after being one of the darlings of college football. Buffalo, however, is 6-2 and coming off two wins in which the combined scores were 65-3. If I blindly picked this game, I would surely pick the Bulls, but there is something fishy about this line.
Kent State wins 23-20
3. Texas A&M (-17) vs. Vandy
I usually don't like spreads that are this high. But, there are three factors in picking this game. 1) Vandy's QB Austyn Carta-Samuels is out. A struggling Commodores offense will struggle even more, even against a pourous defense like the Aggies. 2) Vanderbilt is just simply not that good. Yes, they beat Georgia, but it was a struggling UGA team without its top two running backs, top three wide receivers, and a very young defense. 3) In line with #2, nearly 60% of the betting public is picking Vanderbilt. While that's not terribly high, it does tell me that the public is making Vanderbilt better than they actually are. The Commodores must keep up with Johnny Manziel, but they only rank 68th in total offense. We will get to see what kind of coach Kevin Sumlin is. His team is now out of the national hunt, and most likely out of the SEC Title race as well. Can he salvage the season? I believe in Sumlin, and I'm guessing he and the Aggies will play MAD. Take the Aggies, BIG.
Texas A&M wins 48-23
4. TCU (-2) vs. Texas
It's amazing to me that Texas is getting 77% of the betting action. Sure, TCU is struggling record-wise, but this is a good football team. Keep in mind that many "experts" picked the Horned Frogs to win the Big 12. They have struggled to replace QB Casey Pachall, but their defense is still 19th in the country. And that is AFTER they played solid offenses in LSU, SMU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The best word that can be used to describe Texas over the past few years in fickle. They beat Oklahoma a few weeks ago, but have struggled in true road games. Texas signal caller David Ash is out, and expect the Horned Frogs to be fired up for this one. Frogs roll.
TCU wins 28-20
5. South Carolina (+3) vs Missouri
Just how good is Missouri? That is the true unknown question in the SEC. Missouri beat two solid teams in Georgia and Florida, but both teams have been decimated by injuries. Georgia had just lost 4 of its top playmakers, and still managed 26 points against the Tigers. Missouri managed to move the ball on the 4th best defense in the country in Florida, and they will need to keep up versus Jadeveon Clowney and Co. South Carolina is coming off a very disappointing loss against an improving Tennessee team. Surprisingly, nearly 80% of the betting public thinks Missouri will cover. It is a night game in Missouri, which certainly gives the Tigers an edge. But, emotion can only go so far. The Tigers have yet to face a well-rounded team this year. This game could possibly decide the SEC East, and Spurrier has undoubtedly told his guys that. I think the Gamecocks win outright.
South Carolina wins 33-27
*Please note that these picks are for entertainment purposes only*
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)