1. Florida State (12-0, 8-0) - Back is Jameis Winston. Gone are many of his weapons, including WR Kelvin Benjamin. Don't underestimate the lose of DC Jeremy Pruitt to Georgia. The schedule is a little tougher, as they must face Oklahoma State in Arlington in Week 1. But, the Cowboys will be down, as they only return 9 total starters. Notre Dame comes to town Oct. 18, and Florida will be a lot better this year. The Noles really weren't tested last year outside of the National Title game. Expect the Noles to face some challenges this year.
2. Oregon (11-1, 7-1) - I love Marcus Mariota. I think he is a future All-Pro QB. Had he not gotten hurt, there is a legit chance that the Ducks would have played for the National Title last year. Give the Ducks credit for scheduling Michigan State Sept. 6. The Spartans mirror Stanford, a team that has given the Ducks fits over the years. Their PAC-12 schedule has a few tough games, but only one of them is on the road in UCLA.
3. Alabama (11-1, 7-1) - Bama is once again loaded. If transfer QB Jacob Coker is as good as advertised, the Bama offense could be better than any that Nick Saban has had. No team in the country has as deep of a backfield as Alabama, led by RB TJ Yeldon. There is speed on the outside in WR Amari Cooper, and perhaps the best TE in the country in OJ Howard. The defense will continue to be great, but it must learn how to handle the spread. They have struggled lately defending teams like Texas A&M, Auburn, and Oklahoma. The schedule is favorable. They play West Virginia and Florida, but both are in down this year. Auburn will be tough, but it is at home. The toughest game is Nov. 8 at LSU, but the Crimson Tide have an off week before that game. Keep an eye on the Oct. 4 game at Ole Miss. If both teams are undefeated, that could be a wild one.
4. Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1) - OU surprised a lot of people (me included) with their Sugar Bowl performance. They proved that they could play with anyone in the country. OU struggled last year throwing the football, finishing 90th nationally in passing offense. If Trevor Knight plays like he did versus Bama, OU could very well be in the playoff. The schedule sets up well for the Sooners, but they must avoid the upset bug. Last year, the Sooners fell victim to Texas. They must avoid a loss against inferior teams. The Big 12 will have some good teams, but most of them come to Norman. If the Sooners can survive a three week stretch that involves a trip to TCU, the annual Red River Rivalry game versus Texas, and a home game versus K State, they could run the table. OU is prone to an upset, so beware of the Red Raiders Nov. 15 in Lubbock.
5. Ohio State (11-1, 7-1) - OSU was 5th in the nation last year running the football. Even though they lost RB Carlos Hyde to the NFL, they should continue to roll offensively. QB Braxton Miller is back and is a legitimate contender to be in New York for the Heisman. The question is "can the Buckeyes stop anyone?" In a conference not known for its offense, the Buckeyes finished 46th nationally in total defense, giving up over 377 yards per game. The Buckeyes have a tough Sept. 6 game against Virginia Tech, and they must travel to East Lansing to take on the Spartans. But, their schedule once again is pretty easy. The toughest remaining opponent, Michigan, must come to Columbus to close the season. Barring an upset, the Buckeyes could easily wind up in the first ever playoff.
6. Wisconsin (10-2, 7-1) - QB Joel Stave returns, but he must improve 22/13 TD to INT ratio. Badgers fans hope, though, that RB Melvin Gordon can duplicate his impressive performance from last season of 1,609 yards rushing. Many consider Gordon a potential Heisman candidate. The Badgers have perhaps the most favorable schedule in the country. They have a very tough game in Houston Aug. 30 against LSU. But, LSU will be breaking in a new QB with a new set of WR's. It may take the Tigers time to get rolling, and the Badgers could be catching them at the right time. If the Badgers can get a win, they will be favored in every game the rest of the way. They avoid Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State in the regular season. The Badgers could very well find themselves in the college football playoff if the beat LSU and avoid an upset.
7. Baylor (10-2, 7-2) - QB Bryce Petty is in my top 5 for a Heisman finalist. He threw for over 4,000 yards last year while only throwing 3 picks. Those are unbelievable numbers! He will need more from a defense that ranked 36th in scoring defense nationally. The Bears really won't be tested until they travel to Texas Oct. 4. If they win, that could set up a showdown at Oklahoma Nov. 8 for the conference title. And if both teams are undefeated, the winner could find themselves in the playoffs. Key conference opponents TCU, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State all must travel to Waco.
8. Michigan State (10-2, 7-1) - The 2013 MSU offense didn't blow people away (80th nationally in total offense), but their defense sure did (2nd nationally in total defense). The Spartans were 3rd in the nation in scoring defense, the most important defensive category in my mind. If MSU is going to compete for a National Title, Connor Cook must gain the trust of his coaches. He was turned loose in the last two games versus Ohio State and Stanford, and he threw for over 300 yards in each game. Sept. 6 will really show what the Spartans are all about, as they travel to Eugene to take on Oregon. Win or lose, they could still be on the National Title mix. They have tough games but all are in East Lansing. The winner of the Nov. 8 game vs. Ohio State could set up a showdown with Wisconsin for the Big Ten title, as well as trip to the playoffs.
9. UCLA (9-3, 5-3)- QB Brett Hundley is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He had a very impressive 67% completion percentage last year, while throwing 24 TD's. UCLA must get better against the run, as they gave up over 169 yards per game last year. The Bruins will be tested early. A trip to UVa will not be easy in Week 1, and two weeks later in Austin will be even tougher. It is not unreasonable to think that the Bruins will start off the season 2-2 as they play in Tempe Sept. 25 against Arizona State. If the make it out of the that stretch 3-1, they could run the table the rest of the way as the rest of their tough games are at home.
10. Georgia (10-2, 6-2) - Aaron Murray, the SEC's all-time winningest QB, has graduated. Hutson Mason is good, but Dawg fans will come to appreciate what Murray did. RB Todd Gurley is Georgia's best back since, dare I say, Herschel Walker. But, the defense lost a lot through various departures. New DC Jeremy Pruitt will have his work cut out. The offense should be one of the better ones in the SEC, but the defense could be on the other end. The Dawgs again have a tough opening stretch versus Clemson and South Carolina. They nearly won at Clemson last year, but both teams won't be quite as good. Luckily for the Dawgs, they have an off week in between games. The Dawgs should be favored in every game after USC, but there are tough games remaining. Back to back trips to Missouri and Arkansas will be challenging, and Florida will be much improved.
11. Stanford (8-4, 5-3)- One of my favorite coaches is David Shaw. I love what he has done at Stanford. He continued to build on the success of Jim Harbaugh and has proven that he too is a great coach. I expect QB Kevin Hogan to improve on his 61% completion percentage. Stanford has a difficult opening stretch, with three of their first five games being against USC and on the road against both Washington and Notre Dame. They also must travel later in the year to Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA. Stanford will be one of the most talented teams in the country, but they have a pretty daunting schedule.
12. South Carolina (9-3, 5-3) - I hope USC fans realize how good Connor Shaw was. Shaw, like UGA QB Aaron Murray, was very underappreciated during his college stay. Dylan Thompson played well for Shaw last year, but Shaw may be the best QB ever at USC. Thompson appeared in 8 games last year, completing 58.4% of his 89 passes. Week 1 at home against Texas A&M will really show both teams are made of. Both will be breaking in a new full time QB. On paper, South Carolina may be the most talented team in SEC East. But, along with home games against the Aggies, UGA, and Missouri, they must travel to Florida and Auburn.
13. Clemson (9-3, 7-1) - Clemson must replace QB Tajh Boyd. Boyd passed for over 3,800 yards each of the past three years. Gone also is WR Sammy Watkins, who had over 100 receptions last year. The Tigers have a very difficult 6 game opening stretch. Outside of the Week 2 game against South Carolina State, the Tigers face teams that could beat them. Luckily for them, NC State, UNC, and Louisville are all at home. They only return 12 total starters, so they are probably a year away from competing for the ACC title.
14. Boise State (10-2, 7-1) - We have come to expect a yearly Top 10 finish from Boise. Last year was certainly a disappointment, as they went 8-5. This year's schedule is considerably easier. Gone is Washington, but they are replaced with a neutral site game in Atlanta against Ole Miss. Last year, the Broncos had to visit Fresno State and BYU, and they lost both. This year, both must come to the blue turf. The Broncos return 8 starters on a defense that gave up 24.8 points per game, so expect that to improve. The question is, "Can they get production from the quarterback position?" Grant Hedrick showed potential, starting 5 games last year. But, unless the defense suddenly becomes a top 10 defense, he will be expected to lead a high scoring offense. There are weapons at RB (Jay Ajayi) and WR (Matt Miller), and they will not face any stellar defenses. The Broncos should be favored in every conference game.
15. USC (9-3, 5-3)- I like the coaching change in LA. Lane Kiffin is a good coach, and he will prove that at Bama. But, he struggled as a head coach. There is talent on the roster at USC, and I think that Steve Sarkisian will get a lot out of it. The up-tempo style will favor the offensive weapons, although right now there aren't enough of them. QB Cody Kessler is more than capable at quarterback, but he needs more big plays. He needs more performances like he had in the Las Vagas Bowl, going 22/30 for 345 yards. They are probably a year away from being a Top 5 team, but I expect this squad to really compete. A Sept. 6 trip to Stanford will really show what this team is made of. The rest of the schedule is very manageable, as they avoid going to Oregon and Washington.
16. North Carolina (9-3, 6-2) - Many people felt the Tar Heels were going to be the surprise team of 2013. The finished the year well, winning 5 straight games before falling ACC Coastal Champs Duke. This year, I expect the Tar Heels to continue last year's last seasons success. Gone are QB Bryn Renner and stud TE Eric Ebron. If QB Marquise Williams can build on his performance from year, UNC could compete for the ACC Coastal title. But, they must run the football better, as they ranked 84th in the country. Returning 8 offensive starters, including 3 linemen, certainly will help. The defense gave up over 400 yards per game last year but does return 7 starters. Looming on the schedule are games at Clemson, Duke, and Miami, but they get Coastal contenders Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech both at home. 6-2 would most likely win the Coastal, especially if one of those wins is over Miami.
17. Mississippi (9-3, 5-3) - The Rebels may still be a year away, but they could soon be competing at an elite level. An upset last year over LSU showed just what these young Rebels are capable of. QB Bo Wallace had a terrific year last year, ranking 21st in passing yards. But, he must build on an 18/10 TD/INT ratio. They will be tested in Week 1 in the Georgia Dome versus Boise State. But if they survive, they should be 4-0 Oct. 4 when they host Alabama. That could very well be the biggest game in a long, long time in Oxford. That game, however, begins a brutal stretch of five games versus four teams that should be in the top 10 at some point. How they do during this stretch will determine if the Rebels are elite or not.
18. Miami (8-4, 5-3) - Miami's opener at Louisville will prove a lot for both teams. Al Golden is a good football coach, but his time may be running short. Louisville has some excitement with Bobby Petrino back, but they lost the heart and soul to their team in QB Teddy Bridgewater. Stephen Morris disappointed Cain fans last year and has since graduated. I expect them to be a lot better this year, assuming RB Duke Johnson can stay healthy. But, the schedule is brutal. Besides Louisville, the Canes are on the road against Nebraska, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech. They host crossover rival FSU and upstart UNC. The Canes will be much improved, but their record may not reflect it.
19. LSU (8-4, 5-3) - The Tigers must find a QB. It would help if he had some weapons. Zach Mettenger is gone, as are go-to WR's Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr. They return four offensive linemen, so they should be able to lean heavily on the running game. The defensive, which ranked 21st in scoring, returns seven starters. The good news for the Tigers is their toughest games are at home (Bama) and a neutral site (Wisconsin). The bad news is LSU still plays in the SEC West and has an annual crossover game against Florida.
20. Michigan (9-3, 6-2) - If ever there was an up and down QB last year, Devin Garner was that man. He passed for 451 yards versus Ohio State, and he needs to be that kind of player to lead Michigan to the Big Ten Championship. The offense was only 86th nationally, it struggled even more running the football, ranking 102nd. Much of Garner's struggles can be attributed to an inability to consistently run the football. With the return of 3 offensive linemen, expect the offensive numbers to improve. Tough road games at Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State loom, but other than that, it is very a manageable schedule. Brady Hoke is a very good coach and will have the Wolverines back competing for a Big Ten Title.
21. Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4) - A&M must replace Mr. Everything Johnny Football. But, there is plenty of talent in College Station led by WR's Malcome Kennedy and Sabian Holmes. It's hard to imagine the defense being even worse. Of the major defensive categories, the highest that Aggie ranked was pass efficiency defense (88th). Luckily for them, they return 9 starters. A&M would benefit from slowing down the tempo and leaning heavily on their talented backfield, led by Trey Williams and Tra Carson. The Aggies have a very difficult schedule, as they have tough road games against South Carolina, Mississippi St, Bama, and Auburn. Kevin Sumlin should be happy with a split.
23. Notre Dame (8-4) - The Irish will be much better this year, especially at the QB position. Everett Golson was badly missed last year. The Irish will need more out of their offense as their defense lost some stud linemen in Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix to the NFL. There are offensive weapons, led WR DeVaris Daniels, that should help out whoever wins the QB job. That said, the schedule is brutal. Trips to FSU, Arizona State, and USC are tough enough. Add home games versus Stanford, Louisville, UNC, and Michigan make it arguably the toughest schedule in the country. The Irish will be much better this year, but it will be tough improve on their 4 loses from last year.
24. Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4) - It seems that every other year MSU has a good football team. The Bulldogs return 16 starters, led by QB Dak Prescott. Prescott is on many Preseason All-SEC teams, and he has weapons to help him out. WR Jameon Lewis and TE Malcolm Johnson should help him have an even better season. This year's schedule sets up nicely for them. You are bound to have tough road games in the SEC, and the Bulldogs must travel to LSU and Alabama. But, they are hosting Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Auburn. If they hold serve at home, this could be a special year in Starkville.
25. Indiana (8-4, 5-3) - Indiana? Yes, Indiana. Here's why: The Hoosiers return 18 starters from a 5-7 team. Scoring wasn't a probably and shouldn't be this year. QB Nate Sudfeld returns, as do all 5 offensive linemen. If they are going to compete with the big boys in the Big Ten, they must improve defensively. The Hoosiers ranked 9th in total offense and 17th in scoring offense, but they ranked 114th nationally in scoring defense. The Hoosier gave up a whopping 38.8 points per game, something that obviously must be improved on. Ten returning starters on defense certainly can't hurt those numbers. The schedule sets up for an even better season this year. A trip to Missouri on Sept. 20 will tell us a lot about both teams. If they can win road games at Iowa (Oct. 11) and Rutgers (Nov. 15) this could be a really special season. The Hoosiers should be favored in at least 7 games.
Sources
Statistics were found at espn.com and ncaa.org
Returning starters were found at philsteele.com
Schedules were found at fbschedule.com
Depth charts were found at individual school websites
