Recap of Previous Week
Any avid better or follower of games will tell you to always look at the injury report. Oops! While I did know who was hurt, I did not factor it enough into my picks. I got away with it with my South Carolina pick, only because Connor Shaw came in to save the day. But, my Boise St. and TCU picks failed largely because of poor backup QB play. Lesson learned. The Miles Minute had a mediocre week and finished 2-3
Picks for November 2
1. Miami (+22) at FSU
When I first saw this line, I was blown away. Does Vegas think FSU is THIS much better than Miami? While I agree that Miami is VERY lucky to be undefeated, they are still are a quality ball club. Stephen Morris must play better if the Hurricanes stand a chance. I think FSU wins. In fact, I don't think it'll be close. But, I do think the Hurricanes will hang in there for a while and beat the spread.
FSU wins 41-24
2. UGA (-2) vs. Florida
I'm a UGA grad. One of those unwritten rules is to not bet with emotion. However, I think I have a good feel on this UGA team. They thrive when emotion is involved. They can rise up against the best, or play down to weaker opponents. Despite their record, Florida is a quality opponent. The main reason that UGA wins is that Florida is on their backup QB. In terms of statistics, Aaron Murray is one of the greatest QB's in SEC history. With a depleted and porous defense, he will be forced to carry the Dawgs. If he limits his mistakes, I think he will carry the Dawgs and keep their slim hopes at an SEC East title alive.
UGA wins 24-20
3. UTEP (+47) at Texas A&M
Another big line for Aggies. Last week, I picked them to cover versus Vandy, and they did. I think this one will certainly be another blowout, but I think UTEP wins plus the points. They are averaging 27.7 points per game, and the Aggies are giving up 29 points per game. Aggies win big, but not quite by 47.
Texas A&M wins 55-20
4. Washington State (+12.5) vs. Arizona State
I wish I had the guts to pick this game outright. I really like what Mike Leach is doing at WSU. The Cougars boast the 6th best passing offense in the country, and are coming off of a bye. ASU is pretty solid against the pass, so I think this game will come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. The Cougars are one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin, ranking 103. If they avoid turnovers, I believe WSU can win outright. I see a late pick turning the game, and because of that, I'll take ASU.
ASU wins 27-21
5. Purdue (+31.5) vs. Ohio State
You can always count on this Ohio State team to score, thanks largely to QB Braxton Miller. But, last week the defense really came to play and limited Penn State to 357 yards of total offense. If that continues, they may start to receive more second place votes, which will elevate its BCS ranking. I think OSU has a bit of a letdown versus a woeful Purdue team. The offense will put up points again, but I believe the defense will get scored on. The Purdue offense is only averaging 13 points per game, and I believe that is exactly what they get.
Ohio State wins 41-13
*These picks are for entertainment purposes only*
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Picks for October 26
I've waited until after the BCS Rankings to make my first entry, for two reasons:
1) Unlike other sports, preseason and early season predictions are essentially useless.
2) Along that note, we now have a better idea of who's good, who's bad, and who will compete to play for the National Championship
Thoughts and predictions for games the week of October 25, 2013
1. Boise St (+7.5) vs. BYU
Boise State has recovered quite well since getting demolished in Week 1 by Washington. The Broncos will be without Senior QB Joe Southwick, who has thrown 11 TD's in 7 games. That will force running back Jay Ajayi to take up more of the slack. After getting a bit of a wake up call at Washington, BYU went on the road to Fresno and lost by 1 to a good Bulldog team. They then went to Utah State and won. Provo is a tough place to play, but the Broncos should at least be able to cover. I'll go with the Cougars to win, but this is a toss up to me.
BYU wins 27-23
2. Kent State (+2) vs. Buffalo
There is one main reason that I went with this pick: 95% of the country is going the other way. The general rule of thumb is that when that is the case, and the line hasn't moved much, go the other way. The Golden Flashes are just 2-6, a year after being one of the darlings of college football. Buffalo, however, is 6-2 and coming off two wins in which the combined scores were 65-3. If I blindly picked this game, I would surely pick the Bulls, but there is something fishy about this line.
Kent State wins 23-20
3. Texas A&M (-17) vs. Vandy
I usually don't like spreads that are this high. But, there are three factors in picking this game. 1) Vandy's QB Austyn Carta-Samuels is out. A struggling Commodores offense will struggle even more, even against a pourous defense like the Aggies. 2) Vanderbilt is just simply not that good. Yes, they beat Georgia, but it was a struggling UGA team without its top two running backs, top three wide receivers, and a very young defense. 3) In line with #2, nearly 60% of the betting public is picking Vanderbilt. While that's not terribly high, it does tell me that the public is making Vanderbilt better than they actually are. The Commodores must keep up with Johnny Manziel, but they only rank 68th in total offense. We will get to see what kind of coach Kevin Sumlin is. His team is now out of the national hunt, and most likely out of the SEC Title race as well. Can he salvage the season? I believe in Sumlin, and I'm guessing he and the Aggies will play MAD. Take the Aggies, BIG.
Texas A&M wins 48-23
4. TCU (-2) vs. Texas
It's amazing to me that Texas is getting 77% of the betting action. Sure, TCU is struggling record-wise, but this is a good football team. Keep in mind that many "experts" picked the Horned Frogs to win the Big 12. They have struggled to replace QB Casey Pachall, but their defense is still 19th in the country. And that is AFTER they played solid offenses in LSU, SMU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The best word that can be used to describe Texas over the past few years in fickle. They beat Oklahoma a few weeks ago, but have struggled in true road games. Texas signal caller David Ash is out, and expect the Horned Frogs to be fired up for this one. Frogs roll.
TCU wins 28-20
5. South Carolina (+3) vs Missouri
Just how good is Missouri? That is the true unknown question in the SEC. Missouri beat two solid teams in Georgia and Florida, but both teams have been decimated by injuries. Georgia had just lost 4 of its top playmakers, and still managed 26 points against the Tigers. Missouri managed to move the ball on the 4th best defense in the country in Florida, and they will need to keep up versus Jadeveon Clowney and Co. South Carolina is coming off a very disappointing loss against an improving Tennessee team. Surprisingly, nearly 80% of the betting public thinks Missouri will cover. It is a night game in Missouri, which certainly gives the Tigers an edge. But, emotion can only go so far. The Tigers have yet to face a well-rounded team this year. This game could possibly decide the SEC East, and Spurrier has undoubtedly told his guys that. I think the Gamecocks win outright.
South Carolina wins 33-27
*Please note that these picks are for entertainment purposes only*
1) Unlike other sports, preseason and early season predictions are essentially useless.
2) Along that note, we now have a better idea of who's good, who's bad, and who will compete to play for the National Championship
Thoughts and predictions for games the week of October 25, 2013
1. Boise St (+7.5) vs. BYU
Boise State has recovered quite well since getting demolished in Week 1 by Washington. The Broncos will be without Senior QB Joe Southwick, who has thrown 11 TD's in 7 games. That will force running back Jay Ajayi to take up more of the slack. After getting a bit of a wake up call at Washington, BYU went on the road to Fresno and lost by 1 to a good Bulldog team. They then went to Utah State and won. Provo is a tough place to play, but the Broncos should at least be able to cover. I'll go with the Cougars to win, but this is a toss up to me.
BYU wins 27-23
2. Kent State (+2) vs. Buffalo
There is one main reason that I went with this pick: 95% of the country is going the other way. The general rule of thumb is that when that is the case, and the line hasn't moved much, go the other way. The Golden Flashes are just 2-6, a year after being one of the darlings of college football. Buffalo, however, is 6-2 and coming off two wins in which the combined scores were 65-3. If I blindly picked this game, I would surely pick the Bulls, but there is something fishy about this line.
Kent State wins 23-20
3. Texas A&M (-17) vs. Vandy
I usually don't like spreads that are this high. But, there are three factors in picking this game. 1) Vandy's QB Austyn Carta-Samuels is out. A struggling Commodores offense will struggle even more, even against a pourous defense like the Aggies. 2) Vanderbilt is just simply not that good. Yes, they beat Georgia, but it was a struggling UGA team without its top two running backs, top three wide receivers, and a very young defense. 3) In line with #2, nearly 60% of the betting public is picking Vanderbilt. While that's not terribly high, it does tell me that the public is making Vanderbilt better than they actually are. The Commodores must keep up with Johnny Manziel, but they only rank 68th in total offense. We will get to see what kind of coach Kevin Sumlin is. His team is now out of the national hunt, and most likely out of the SEC Title race as well. Can he salvage the season? I believe in Sumlin, and I'm guessing he and the Aggies will play MAD. Take the Aggies, BIG.
Texas A&M wins 48-23
4. TCU (-2) vs. Texas
It's amazing to me that Texas is getting 77% of the betting action. Sure, TCU is struggling record-wise, but this is a good football team. Keep in mind that many "experts" picked the Horned Frogs to win the Big 12. They have struggled to replace QB Casey Pachall, but their defense is still 19th in the country. And that is AFTER they played solid offenses in LSU, SMU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The best word that can be used to describe Texas over the past few years in fickle. They beat Oklahoma a few weeks ago, but have struggled in true road games. Texas signal caller David Ash is out, and expect the Horned Frogs to be fired up for this one. Frogs roll.
TCU wins 28-20
5. South Carolina (+3) vs Missouri
Just how good is Missouri? That is the true unknown question in the SEC. Missouri beat two solid teams in Georgia and Florida, but both teams have been decimated by injuries. Georgia had just lost 4 of its top playmakers, and still managed 26 points against the Tigers. Missouri managed to move the ball on the 4th best defense in the country in Florida, and they will need to keep up versus Jadeveon Clowney and Co. South Carolina is coming off a very disappointing loss against an improving Tennessee team. Surprisingly, nearly 80% of the betting public thinks Missouri will cover. It is a night game in Missouri, which certainly gives the Tigers an edge. But, emotion can only go so far. The Tigers have yet to face a well-rounded team this year. This game could possibly decide the SEC East, and Spurrier has undoubtedly told his guys that. I think the Gamecocks win outright.
South Carolina wins 33-27
*Please note that these picks are for entertainment purposes only*
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)