Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Recap and Preview of November 2 Games

Recap of Previous Week
Any avid better or follower of games will tell you to always look at the injury report. Oops!  While I did know who was hurt, I did not factor it enough into my picks.  I got away with it with my South Carolina pick, only because Connor Shaw came in to save the day.  But, my Boise St. and TCU picks failed largely because of poor backup QB play. Lesson learned.  The Miles Minute had a mediocre week and finished 2-3

Picks for November 2
1.  Miami (+22) at FSU
When I first saw this line, I was blown away. Does Vegas think FSU is THIS much better than Miami? While I agree that Miami is VERY lucky to be undefeated, they are still are a quality ball club.  Stephen Morris must play better if the Hurricanes stand a chance.  I think FSU wins.  In fact, I don't think it'll be close.  But, I do think the Hurricanes will hang in there for a while and beat the spread.
FSU wins 41-24

2.  UGA (-2) vs. Florida
I'm a UGA grad. One of those unwritten rules is to not bet with emotion. However, I think I have a good feel on this UGA team.  They thrive when emotion is involved.  They can rise up against the best, or play down to weaker opponents.  Despite their record, Florida is a quality opponent.  The main reason that UGA wins is that Florida is on their backup QB.  In terms of statistics, Aaron Murray is one of the greatest QB's in SEC history.  With a depleted and porous defense, he will be forced to carry the Dawgs.  If he limits his mistakes, I think he will carry the Dawgs and keep their slim hopes at an SEC East title alive.
UGA wins 24-20

3.  UTEP (+47) at Texas A&M
Another big line for Aggies.  Last week, I picked them to cover versus Vandy, and they did. I think this one will certainly be another blowout, but I think UTEP wins plus the points.  They are averaging 27.7 points per game, and the Aggies are giving up 29 points per game.  Aggies win big, but not quite by 47.
Texas A&M wins 55-20


4.  Washington State (+12.5) vs. Arizona State
I wish I had the guts to pick this game outright. I really like what Mike Leach is doing at WSU.  The Cougars boast the 6th best passing offense in the country, and are coming off of a bye.  ASU is pretty solid against the pass, so I think this game will come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. The Cougars are one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin, ranking 103. If they avoid turnovers, I believe WSU can win outright.  I see a late pick turning the game, and because of that, I'll take ASU.
ASU wins 27-21

5. Purdue (+31.5) vs. Ohio State
You can always count on this Ohio State team to score, thanks largely to QB Braxton Miller.  But, last week the defense really came to play and limited Penn State to 357 yards of total offense. If that continues, they may start to receive more second place votes, which will elevate its BCS ranking.  I think OSU has a bit of a letdown versus a woeful Purdue team.  The offense will put up points again, but I believe the defense will get scored on. The Purdue offense is only averaging 13 points per game, and I believe that is exactly what they get.
Ohio State wins 41-13

*These picks are for entertainment purposes only*

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