Monday, July 24, 2017

SEC Predictions

West
1. Alabama
The computer loves Bama, giving them the lowest ranking in the conference by over 30 points.  Bama, though, has a brutal schedule, beginning with FSU.  The Iron Bowl could decide the West and the College Football Playoff picture.

2.  Auburn
The numbers are tight here with LSU and Auburn.  Advantage to Auburn because of their cross over schedule.  Auburn's trip Sept. 9 to Clemson will be telling for both teams.  If they were to win, they could then afford a lose prior to Bama and still win the West.

3.  LSU
Along with their games in the West, LSU must travel to Florida and Tennessee.  Although they have more talent than both teams, hard to see them winning both.  The computers love LSU but for two categories: crossover schedule and QB.  If Danny Etling produces, they can overcome the schedule.

4.  Arkansas
I love senior QB's.  Arkansas could surprise some people, and I would not be surprised if they upset 1 of the top 3 in the West.  Too much talent above them, though, to make a real push for West crown.

5.  Mississippi State
Dan Mullen is a QB whisperer, and he has a gym in Nick Fitzgerald.  Conference schedule is brutal.  Winnable games are on the road (UGA, Auburn, A&M, and Arkansas), with Bama and LSU at home.  Tough to overcome the schedule.

6.  Texas A&M
The computer has A&M fifth.  But, like Ole Miss, hard to overcome dysfunction.  If A&M loses at UCLA (and I think they will), I could see this team going 5-7.  If they win, the schedule sets up nicely for a battle for the West crown.

7.  Ole Miss
No bowl.  No coach.  As a former coach, I've seen firsthand how tough it is to rally and motivate a team that has nothing to play for.  Ole Miss has talent, and a brutal three game road stretch early on will test them (Cal, Bama, Auburn).  If they somehow go 1-2, they could salvage the season.  If they go 0-3 (which I believe they will), you could be looking at a 4-8 team.

East
1.  Georgia
I nearly went with Florida here, even though the computer gives the Dawgs a slight edge.  Georgia has talent.  It is just young talent.  I lot with depend on the success of the young offensive line.  Georgia could easily start 2-0 or 0-2.  They better come to play versus App State

2.  Florida
Many people (including this writer) believe Malik Zaire will be the Gators QB.  He is a great leader, but will need to make some plays with his arm to overcome a brutal schedule.  The Gators will have as much or more talent than everyone they play except for FSU.  If they can stay healthy, this is a sleeper for the Playoffs.

3.  Tennessee
Speaking of QB, who will UT's be?  Tennessee had high expectations last year and failed to live up them.  This year, most people have then right here at third.  The schedule is the toughest in the conference, with crossover games at Bama and at home to LSU, not to mention an East trip to Gainesville.

4.  Kentucky
Few teams were playing better football at the end of the year than Kentucky.  That is a sign of good coaching.  Now, Kentucky must learn to win the close ones. The Cats open again at Southern Miss, a game they will certainly be ready for.  The trip to South Carolina Sept. 16 will tell who in the East is ready to take the next step.

5.  South Carolina
South Carolina's best shot is third in the East.  There is some talent now, but little depth.  Muschamp is recruiting well but needs another class.  The Sept. 9 trip to Missouri will be telling.  If they can win that, they should battle the Vols and Cats for third.

6.  Missouri
Missouri lost five SEC games by double figures.  Their closest road game was 10 points at South Carolina.  Despite that, Barry Odom is now in his second season, and he has a solid QB in Drew Lock.  Their first four games are at home.  If they can go 3-1, they could be a tough out in the SEC East.

7.  Vanderbilt
Vandy came out of nowhere to go 3-5 in the SEC last year.  Credit Derek Mason and his staff for maximizing their potential.  This year, they won't be able to sneak up on anyone.  The 'Dores upset UGA, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, and all three should be more talented than the 'Dores this year.  While I don't expect a return to 2014 (3-9), I don't see 6 wins on their schedule this year.

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