The Level System

For the past 10 years, I have been touting what I call the Level System.  This system looks at talent ALONE, ignoring things like coaching, injuries, home vs. away schedule, bad calls, etc.  I believe, and history proves this, that coaching is only good for a 1 level increase/decrease. In rare circumstances, you see a 2 level increase.  Over the next days, I will be posting my Level 5 and Level 4 teams.  To better understand this, I have this broken down both in college football and college basketball terms.

Level 5
These are championship level teams.  In college football, these teams should finish the regular season 11-1 or 12-0 and be legitimate playoff contenders.  In college basketball, these are Final Four teams.  UNC basketball is a perfect example of this from last year.  They SHOULD have been in the Final Four simply based on their talent, and they lived up to it.

Level 4
These teams should have great years.  In college football, they should go 9-3 or 10-2 and compete for their conference championship.  They also receive New Year's Day/Dec. 31 bowl bids.  In college basketball, they are Sweet 16/Elite 8 teams.  They are certainly capable of taking the next step and reaching a championship, but it requires both good coaching and breaks.  UCLA basketball is a good example.  They were a very talented team this past year, but they were not the 4-5 most talented team.  The had an unlucky draw in the tourney versus Kentucky and lost to the better team.  The Washington football team from last year was a Level 4 team.  Yet, with great coaching, they jumped to a Level 5 team.

Level 3
These teams should have slightly above average years.  In college football, they should go 7-5 or 8-4.  Non-Power 5 teams should be 9-3 or 10-2.  In college basketball, these teams should make the tournament and possibly win a game.  If they get good coaching, they could make a run in the tournament.  Wake Forest is a good example.  They had decent talent to make the tournament.  They finished 19-14 and made the NCAA Tournament. However, they lost in the First Four to Kansas State.  Georgia Tech was a Level 3 football team last year.  Yet, by beating Georgia at the end of the year and Kentucky in the Taxslayer Bowl, they finished with 9 wins, making them a Level 4 team.  Virginia Tech is another example from the same conference.

Level 2
These teams have slightly below-average years.  In college football, they should go anywhere from 4-8 to 6-6.  Non-Power 5 teams should go anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4 depending on their schedule.  In college basketball, these are NIT or NIT-bubble teams.  Georgia Tech is a good example of a Level 2 basketball teams from this past year.  Few would argue that they had the talent to be an NCAA team.  TCU was a Level 3 football team that performed down to a Level 2 level.  They finished the regular season at 6-6.  Some could argue (not me) that this was possibly even a Level 4 caliber team.

Level 1
As you can probably guess, these teams are the bottom of the barrel.  Baring upsets, great coaching, or breaks, they should finish last or next to last in their conference.  These college football teams should have anywhere from 0 to 3 overall wins.  In college basketball basketball, these teams finish below .500.  Virginia was a Level 1 football team from last year.  Few expected them to compete in the ACC last season.